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August US CPI data looked neutral: headline CPI came in at 0.4% MoM and 3.4% YoY. However, core CPI at 0.3% MoM, above the 0.2% expectation, is a hawkish signal that cannot be ignored. With oil prices above $100, inflationary pressure has not truly eased.
The market now sees an 86–90% chance of the Fed raising interest rates. More bearishly, this could become a prolonged tightening cycle rather than a one-off move. The 10Y US Treasury yield is approaching 5%, making non-yielding assets like BTC less attractive. Global crypto fund outflows totaled $243 million over the past week. BTC failed to form a golden cross, with its price falling back to around $77K.
Altcoins are the most vulnerable. Liquidity is thin and beta is high. If BTC breaks below $76K, the decline could be swift. ETH needs to hold the $1.850–$1.875 support.
The rational opportunity at present: short on rebounds, avoid altcoins, and monitor the 10Y yield at the 5% level. Do not be fooled by short-term rallies. In this macro environment, a bearish position is a reasonable one.
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#每周来晒 #August CPI data released.
$ZEC