#每周来晒 #8月CPI数据出炉 US CPI lands, but the market rose instead—what is the logic behind it?

On the evening of September 11, the US August CPI data came out, and many people panicked at first glance—the core CPI rose 0.3% month over month, higher than the market's 0.2% expectation and the largest monthly increase since April. But strangely, US stock futures rose instead after the data was released, while gold and silver also followed suit.
This is quite interesting. The negative data came out, yet the market rose instead of falling, so there must be deeper logic at work behind it.

I. Where exactly did this CPI exceed expectations? US August CPI rose 3.4% year over year, exactly in line with market expectations. Core CPI fell from 2.5% in July to 2.4% year over year, also meeting expectations.
The figures all look fine, but the month-over-month data seems to have a problem. Core CPI rose 0.3% month over month, 0.1 percentage points above the market's 0.2% expectation and the largest monthly increase since April.
Why did this 0.1 percentage-point difference have such a big impact? Because institutions had previously set a framework for the Federal Reserve: if core CPI rose 0.1% or less month over month, the Fed would likely remain on hold; at 0.2%, uncertainty would continue; if it reached 0.3% or higher, a rate hike would be essentially certain. Now that the figure came in at 0.3%, the rate-hike “trigger line” has been reached.
Breaking it down, the housing index rose 0.3% month over month, the communications index rose 2.3%, and airfares rose 2.7%. Services inflation is beginning to pick up, which is what worries the market most.
Looking at year-over-year figures, the gasoline index rose 27.4% and the energy index rose 16.3%. Oil prices had previously broken above $100 per barrel and are now beginning to pass through to transportation and service prices.
Energy and housing, the two components most closely watched by the Fed, are both moving higher. That is why a 0.1 percentage-point deviation could send the probability of a rate hike from 71% straight up to 90%.

II. Why did the market rise instead?
This requires taking one more turn.
After the data came out, the market's focus was no longer “Will there be a rate hike in September?” but “How many hikes will there be?” The probability of a September rate hike rose to 90%, and expectations for another hike in December also strengthened. Normally, rising rate-hike expectations should be negative, but US stock futures rose instead, while gold and silver also rebounded.
The reason can be summed up in four words: the negative news is fully priced in. US stocks had already fallen for three to four consecutive days over the past week, and the market had already thoroughly priced in “higher-than-expected inflation” and “rising rate-hike expectations.” The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index had plunged 2.66% before the data was released, while the 30-year US Treasury yield briefly surged to 5.36%, its highest level since 2007. When everyone knows the shoe is about to drop, the moment it actually does is less frightening. Let's shift our perspective to another detail. The Dow opened more than 1% higher, the S&P 500 rose 0.8%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.8%. Gold briefly fell below $4,300 but quickly rebounded to around $4,344. After briefly surging, US Treasury yields also began giving back their gains. This “falling first, then rising” pattern essentially reflects a concentrated release of market sentiment. Those who needed to sell have already sold, and those who needed to run have already run. The remaining funds began reassessing: Can a 90% rate-hike probability get any worse? The market is not saying “rate hikes are a good thing”; it is saying, “I already knew about this, so I can turn the page.”$BTC