Don’t be alarmed by 3.4%; core inflation is what really matters

This CPI report looks somewhat “hawkish,” but when broken down, it is not as scary as it seems. Overall CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year in August, in line with market expectations; core CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month. Energy prices rebounded notably, with gasoline prices rising 3.9%, becoming an important driver of overall inflation.
This means some of the inflationary pressure is energy-related, rather than a broad acceleration across all goods and services. The problem is that core services remain sticky, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to declare victory over inflation based solely on falling energy prices.
Therefore, the market should interpret policy expectations as follows: **rate-cut expectations have been postponed, not completely eliminated.** If core CPI falls again in the future while the labor market cools, the Federal Reserve may still shift back toward easing.
In trading, I would not turn completely bearish because of a single CPI report. In the short term, it is more suitable to sell into strength and buy the dips. For BTC, focus on key support levels; for stocks, watch leaders with strong cash flow and clear AI demand. What the market fears most is not high inflation, but high inflation combined with a sudden slowdown in growth. #每周来晒 and #8月CPI数据出炉 .