#XAU
Gold has reached a point where the next move is likely to tell us much more than the last one.
The interesting part is that gold did not simply collapse after the latest U.S. inflation report. August CPI came in at 0.4% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, while core CPI increased 0.3%. That pushed markets toward a much higher probability of a Fed rate hike next week, which should normally be a clear headwind for gold.

Yet buyers stepped back in.

That reaction matters.

The latest verified Friday spot pricing placed gold around the $4,350–$4,360 area after a volatile session that traded roughly between $4,295 and $4,403. Gold still ended the week about 1.5% lower, so I am not calling this a confirmed bullish reversal. What I see is a market testing whether the recent correction can develop into a deeper trend change or become another opportunity for buyers.

The macro picture is complicated. Higher U.S. inflation and elevated Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset such as gold. A 10-year Treasury yield approaching 5% is therefore an important pressure point.

But at the same time, geopolitical uncertainty and oil prices above $100 are keeping the inflation and safe-haven stories alive. That creates a genuine tug-of-war: higher yields can push gold lower, while geopolitical risk can bring buyers back into the metal.

This is why I would not read one strong candle as a new trend.

From the chart perspective, $4,300 is the first level I care about most on the downside. It is both a major psychological area and an important test of whether Friday's recovery has real follow-through. If buyers continue defending $4,300–$4,320, the correction can remain controlled.

The first major upside obstacle is $4,400–$4,420. Friday already showed rejection around this area, so I would want to see price actually close above it rather than simply wick through it. A successful reclaim would put $4,500 back into focus, followed by the higher resistance region around $4,550.

On the other hand, losing $4,300 would change the conversation. A confirmed daily break followed by a failed retest would suggest that buyers are losing control. In that case, $4,250 and $4,200 become the next downside areas I would monitor.

My bullish plan is therefore confirmation-based. I would wait for gold to reclaim $4,400 and hold it on a retest. A potential entry around $4,390–$4,410 would make sense only after confirmation, with invalidation below roughly $4,350. The upside objectives would be $4,450, $4,500 and $4,550.

The bearish setup requires the opposite signal. If XAU/USD closes below $4,300 and then rejects that level from underneath, a continuation entry around $4,280–$4,300 becomes more interesting. A move back above $4,350 would invalidate that idea, while $4,250 and $4,200 would be the first downside objectives.

I prefer waiting for one of these confirmations instead of trading directly in the middle of $4,300–$4,400. That range can easily produce false breaks while macro headlines are moving yields, the dollar and oil at the same time.

For risk management, I would keep the loss on a single trade around 1–2% of total capital. Position size should come from the distance between entry and stop. If the stop is wider, the position must become smaller; conviction should never be used as a substitute for risk control.

My current verdict: neutral, with a slight bearish lean.

The key line is $4,400. A sustained reclaim would shift my short-term bias bullish. A confirmed breakdown below $4,300 would strengthen the bearish case. Until one of those levels gives way convincingly, I would treat gold as a range-bound market caught between inflation pressure and safe-haven demand.

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$XAU