#ShareWeekly

ETH/USDT Weekend Outlook and Macro Recap

Current Price: $2,540.65 (+3.13%)

We are heading into the weekend, and the market has just digested critical macro data. Here is the updated landscape and how to approach it.

What Just Happened

The recent PPI print came in hotter than expected on the headline number, while Core PPI was slightly cooler. CPI was mostly in line, though core inflation remains sticky. Because of this mixed but generally firm inflation data, the market is now pricing in roughly an 88% chance of a Fed rate hike at the upcoming September 15-16 meeting.

The immediate reaction saw Bitcoin dip below $77,000 right after the PPI release. Ethereum has held up relatively well compared to BTC, but sellers are clearly active and defending the $2,600 zone.

Technical Picture Right Now

ETH is currently squeezed between the EMA5 at $2,490 and the upper Bollinger Band at $2,542. This is a decision zone. The MACD is already showing a bearish crossover, which means bullish momentum is slowing down. The local high to watch is $2,666, while the immediate support block sits at $2,490 to $2,475, backed by the EMA30 at $2,347.

How to Trade This Weekend

If you are currently in a long position, partial profit taking around $2,600 to $2,650 makes logical sense. With the Fed meeting looming and an 88% probability of a hike already priced in, any surprise will hit risk assets hard. For the remainder of your position, keep a strict stop loss below $2,490. If that level breaks, the technical picture deteriorates rapidly.

If you are looking to enter a new long, do not chase the price above $2,550 right before the weekend. Wait for either a pullback to the $2,475 to $2,490 zone, or a confirmed daily close above $2,550. For a dip buy, place your stop loss at $2,420, just below the EMA30, with targets at $2,600 and then $2,666.

If you are considering a short position, only do so with a stop loss above $2,600. The rationale is simple: the MACD is already rolling over, momentum is fading, and the macro environment favors sellers right now. Downside targets would be $2,470 and then $2,420.

Key Levels to Watch

Resistance 1 is at $2,600.
Resistance 2 is at $2,666, which is the local swing high.
Support 1 is at $2,490 to $2,475, which is the EMA5 and EMA10 confluence.
Support 2 is at $2,420 to $2,433, which aligns with the EMA30 and the 24-hour low.

Final Recommendation

Weekend volatility after PPI and CPI can sometimes be lower due to thin liquidity, but Monday will bring positioning ahead of the FOMC meeting on September 16. Manage your position size conservatively. Do not add to losing positions. Remember that crypto trades 24/7, but weekend liquidity is thinner, which means stop losses can slip and execute at worse prices than expected.

This is not financial advice. Always do your own research.
$ETH