#BTCFallsBelow77000
The CPI setup is what makes Bitcoin interesting today.
I’m not looking at BTC in isolation. The market is already carrying inflation pressure from yesterday’s PPI, while Treasury yields are sitting close to 5% and oil remains above $100. That combination explains why Bitcoin has struggled to hold the higher levels.

August PPI came in at 0.4% month over month and 5.4% year over year, keeping the “higher for longer” rate narrative alive. Markets are now pricing roughly a 71.1% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed hike at the September 15–16 meeting.

Now CPI is the next real test.

The market expects approximately 0.4% MoM and 3.4% YoY headline CPI, with 0.2% MoM and 2.4% YoY core CPI. The release is scheduled for 13:30 UTC.

BTC is currently around $78,338, with a market cap near $1.572T and 24-hour spot volume around $34.1B. The latest 24-hour range is $77,832.79–$79,701.36, while the 7-day range is $77,452.29–$82,107.69. BTC is up about 0.8% over 24 hours and 1.0% over 7 days on the latest CoinGecko data.

What I see on the chart is a market that has recovered from the recent $77.45K area but still hasn't reclaimed the bigger $80K–$82.1K zone.

The first resistance is around $79.7K, because that is the current 24-hour high. A clean break above it would show buyers are finally absorbing the CPI risk.

Above that, $80K is the psychological level, but I care more about $82.1K, the current 7-day high. If BTC gets above $82.1K and actually holds it, the structure would start looking much healthier.

On the downside, $77.8K is the immediate intraday support. The more important level is $77.45K, the current 7-day low. Losing that zone would mean the recent recovery has failed and sellers are regaining control.

My bullish setup is not “buy because CPI might be good.”

I want BTC to reclaim $79.7K, hold it on a retest, and then push through $80K with convincing volume.

A confirmation entry around $79.8K–$80K would make sense only after that reclaim. A possible invalidation is below $78.9K. From a $79.8K entry with a $78.9K stop, the approximate risk is $900 per BTC. TP1 around $80.8K, TP2 around $82.1K, and TP3 around $84K would give roughly 1.1R, 2.6R and 4.7R respectively.

The bearish setup is much cleaner if $77.45K breaks.

I would not short the first red candle. I want a decisive breakdown followed by a failed reclaim of $77.45K. That would tell me the support has actually flipped into resistance.

For that setup, a confirmation around $77.2K–$77.4K with invalidation back above roughly $78.1K keeps the risk defined. The first psychological downside objective would be $76K, followed by $75K if selling pressure expands.

There is also a lot of event risk around derivatives today. Deribit data shows roughly $2.23B of BTC options open interest expiring September 11, with about $1.39B in calls and $844.5M in puts. That doesn't tell me which direction BTC must move, but it does tell me volatility around today's session deserves respect.

I’m deliberately not using a specific aggregate futures funding rate, liquidation figure or total futures open-interest number here because I couldn't verify a sufficiently reliable current figure from the available sources. I would rather leave a number out than put a fake figure into the analysis.

My strategy around CPI is therefore simple: don't chase the first candle.

If CPI is hotter than expected, I want to see whether $77.45K breaks.

If CPI is softer and BTC reclaims $79.7K, I want to see whether buyers can turn that resistance into support.

The CPI number matters, but the price reaction matters more.

For risk management, I would keep the position size small enough that a full stop costs only around 1–2% of trading capital. The wider the stop, the smaller the position should be. The formula is simple: risk amount divided by the distance between entry and stop gives the maximum BTC position size.

My current bias is neutral to slightly bearish below $79.7K.

A sustained reclaim of $79.7K, followed by a break and hold above $82.1K, would turn me bullish.

A confirmed loss of $77.45K would turn me bearish.

Until one of those levels gives way, I’d rather trade the confirmation than guess what CPI will do.

$BTC

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