#BTCFallsBelow77000

Bitcoin has broken below 77,000 and trades near 76,840, down 1.9 percent in 24 hours and 4.9 percent on the week. Ethereum is calmer near 2,451, off 1 percent on the day. Total market cap is about 2.71 trillion dollars with BTC dominance at 58.98 percent and the altcoin season index at 37, so money is hiding in Bitcoin rather than rotating into alts. Sentiment reads 67, still Neutral, so there is no panic yet.

The trigger was macro. August US PPI printed at 5.4 percent year over year versus 5.3 percent expected, with core PPI at 4.6 percent. That lifted the market-implied odds of a 25 basis point Fed hike at the September 15 to 16 FOMC meeting to roughly 61 percent. Yields and the dollar rose, and risk assets sold off together. About 450 to 560 million dollars of crypto positions were liquidated in 24 hours, almost all longs, which is a leverage flush rather than a fundamental collapse. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which took in about 987 million dollars the previous week, flipped to a small outflow on September 9, so the institutional bid paused right at the macro wall.

Bitcoin: levels and forecast

The technicals are mixed. Hourly Bitcoin sits in a bearish moving-average alignment with RSI near 37, and the daily ADX above 50 confirms a strong downtrend. But the four-hour RSI is oversold with a deeply negative CCI, so violent bounces are likely. The daily moving-average alignment is still bullish, so this reads as a deep correction inside a larger range, not yet a structural bear market.

Support sits at 76,400 to 76,500 where the recent low is, then 74,000 to 75,000, with the low 70,000s if the data goes badly wrong. Resistance is 77,300, then 78,200, then the 200-day moving average zone near 79,000 to 79,200. A daily close above about 82,300 would flip the daily Parabolic SAR and restore a bullish posture.

On the upside, a soft CPI today plus hike odds falling below 40 percent and a Fed hold next week would let Bitcoin reclaim 78,000 to 79,000 quickly, then challenge 82,000, with 85,000 to 88,000 open if ETF inflows return to early-September pace. On the downside, a hot CPI that pushes hike odds above 75 percent means losing 76,400 opens 74,000, and a hawkish surprise could push a probe toward 70,000. My read is that downside is better defined than upside, and with longs still clearing and no capitulation wick yet, chasing a bounce before CPI is a low-quality bet. Trade the reaction, not the anticipation.

Plan for the next 48 hours

Cut leverage into the CPI release, because a 0.1 percentage point surprise in core inflation can move Bitcoin several percent in minutes. Keep dry powder for the 76,400 and 74,000 support tests instead of buying strength into 79,000 resistance. If you are long from higher levels, a stop below the 76,400 shelf is the honest line, because below it the daily structure weakens. If you are flat, scale in on confirmed support retests with a hard invalidation, and treat spikes into 78,000 to 79,000 as chances to trim. The FOMC on September 15 and 16 is the real event.

Ethereum and alts

Ethereum is relatively stronger than Bitcoin but not leading. Support is 2,425, then 2,380; resistance is 2,483, then the daily Parabolic SAR near 2,510 and 2,560. ETH ETF flows have been mildly positive, so if ETH absorbs inflows while BTC ETFs leak, the ETH to BTC ratio is where a rotation would first appear. Mid-cap alts are falling two to three times harder than Bitcoin, with Filecoin, CAKE, Mantle, HYPE and several memecoins down 3 to 8 percent on macro contagion rather than project news.

Gold

Gold trades near 4,400 dollars an ounce, with December futures settling at 4,437 on September 10 after an early gain was reversed by a firmer dollar and rising yields. Gold faces the same hot-inflation, higher-yield pressure as crypto yet holds up far better on a structural central bank bid and safe-haven demand from the US and Iran tension around the Strait of Hormuz. My view is that the two are now diverging: both are inflation hedges on paper, but only gold behaves like one in this shock, because a rate-hike scare compresses crypto's liquidity-driven valuation far faster than a metal with record official demand. A hot CPI means gold wobbles but finds dip buyers, a cool CPI means it grinds higher, and oil above 100 dollars keeps inflation sticky.

Data calendar

August CPI lands this morning at 8:30 am Eastern Time, roughly 5:30 pm your local time. Consensus is 0.4 percent month-on-month and 3.3 percent year over year, slowing from 3.4 percent, with core CPI at 0.2 percent and 2.4 percent annually. It is the decisive input for the Fed. A hot print pushes hike odds and Treasury yields higher, which is negative for Bitcoin, Ethereum and rate-sensitive growth names like NVDA, while a cool print hands the doves an opening and lifts crypto and tech. August nonfarm payrolls already came in at 162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1 percent, firm enough to put a hike back on the table, and the next jobs report is due October 2. The funds rate sits at 3.50 to 3.75 percent with inflation above 3 percent and no FOMC member openly discussing cuts, so the base case for 2026 is higher-for-longer and any rally not backed by cooling inflation has a short half-life.

NVDA

NVIDIA closed at 218.40 on September 10, down 2.25 percent, and was near 217.75 after hours, about 5 percent below its 230.40 close on September 4. The fall was sector and macro, not company-specific: the same PPI-driven yield spike hit semiconductors, and a report that a near-term H200 breakthrough in China is unlikely added an overhang. Fundamentals remain strong, with Q2 FY2027 revenue of 96.22 billion dollars beating the 92.16 billion consensus and EPS of 2.22 beating 2.06. Next results are November 18, with consensus near 108.9 billion dollars of revenue and 2.49 dollars of EPS. The average target is about 302 dollars on TipRanks, ranging 250 to 425, with a median near 315 across 61 analysts and almost no sell ratings.

Support is 215 to 217, then 208 to 210; resistance is 223 to 225, then 230 and the 234.75 high from September 4. NVDA and Bitcoin are the same trade right now, long-duration risk assets priced against one rate path, so CPI and the FOMC will move both the same way and holding both does not diversify macro risk. Company-specific risks are customer concentration, where three customers were about 44 percent of first-half revenue, the AI data centre debt debate flagged by the IMF and BIS, China export limits, and power constraints.

My take

The market is repricing the odds that the Fed's next move is a hike rather than a cut, right before the quarter's biggest inflation print. That explains why Bitcoin is below 77,000 despite strong ETF inflows earlier in the month, why gold holds up better than crypto, and why NVDA is down 5 percent from its high with no bad company news. The asymmetry is this: crypto has spent the week clearing leverage, sentiment is only Neutral rather than fearful, and the daily trend structure is still intact, so the resolution could be violent either way, but another flush before a durable bottom is a real risk. The most defensible plan is patience through today's data, no leverage into the FOMC, buying confirmed support rather than momentum, and holding some cash, because a hot CPI would give you better entries in both Bitcoin and NVDA than anything available this morning.