Tonight is the decisive CPI moment. Following the early-month NFP buildup and last night's PPI buildup, the Fed's rate decision at 2:00 a.m. on the 17th has already been priced at a 70% probability of a 0.25 percentage-point hike, while the ECB has already announced its rate hike decision in advance;
Tonight, the market broke the sideways trend of the past 20 days and tested support to the downside; quite a few longs were wiped out, but crypto remained relatively resilient;
Tonight's CPI forecast is bearish. Judging from Trump's usual style, macro policy generally seeks balance. Given that last night's PPI significantly exceeded expectations, tonight's data will fully reveal whether this has been completely transmitted from the production side to the consumer side;
BTC support/resistance levels: 87550/85165/75475/78425/71500
Buy lows and short highs; both long and short trades are viable—not a one-sided market!
ETH support/resistance levels: 2750//2525/2400/2225/2100
Following BTC's trend, it made a second bottom test in the early hours and was slightly stronger than BTC;
For XAU, continue executing yesterday's XAG strategy according to last night's XAG approach. Whether it is the leftover position from yesterday noon or the initial position opened last night, just pay attention to position sizing. Practicing trading skills and honing your T techniques is completely acceptable as long as the technical position size remains controllable;
SNDK is showing a mildly bearish trend;
The trading suggestions do not constitute any basis for investment decisions: Tonight's CPI is undoubtedly the main event. However, with the November midterm elections approaching, Trump needs to create a favorable environment for Americans in which inflation and living costs appear controllable. Therefore, the probability that tonight's CPI will exceed expectations like last night's PPI is somewhat lower. If the Labor Department has any sense, meeting expectations would be the best outcome; if it meets expectations, the Fed's rate decision at 2:00 a.m. on the 17th will still be subject to speculation over a hike; if it exceeds expectations, the Fed will be put in an extremely difficult position;
So tonight remains quite important. The Houthis have tightened their control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the US and Iran continue trading blows, and consumers worldwide are the ones footing the bill. Inflation cannot be contained, so the sword of a rate hike will remain hanging overhead!
However, the PPI/CPI trend also shows that they decline rapidly and simultaneously whenever the US and Iran ease tensions. Therefore, the effective way to control inflation is not so-called rate hikes, but ending local conflicts as soon as possible;
In view of this, the sharp drops expected this month and next month will still be an opportunity to go in aggressively with heavy spot positions!
‍#美国8月CPI即将发布

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