#美国8月PPI录得5.4%高于预期 U.S. PPI rises to 5.4%! Why is BTC still falling? The key risk is tomorrow night

#美国8月PPI录得5.4%高于预期 U.S. PPI rises to 5.4%! Why is BTC still falling? The key risk is tomorrow night

On the evening of September 10 Beijing time, the U.S. released its August Producer Price Index (PPI). The data did not surge across the board, but neither did it provide the market with a genuine signal of cooling inflation.
U.S. PPI rose 0.4% month-on-month in August, in line with market expectations; it rose 5.4% year-on-year, slightly above the market expectation of 5.3%. The core index, excluding food, energy, and trade services, rose 0.3% month-on-month, below July's 0.4%; it rose 4.7% year-on-year. Meanwhile, July's monthly PPI was revised up from 0% to 0.1%.

Is the data bullish or bearish?
The overall assessment is: broadly in line with expectations, but slightly hawkish.
The 0.4% monthly PPI increase did not exceed expectations, so it cannot be called a full-blown "blowout"; however, the year-on-year increase to 5.4%, combined with the upward revision to the previous reading, shows that inflationary pressure on the U.S. production side remains elevated, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to confidently shift toward easing for now.
However, this price increase was mainly driven by energy, rather than broad-based price increases across all industries.
Commodity prices rose 1.1% in August, with energy prices up 4.2%, contributing more than three-quarters of the increase in commodity prices; diesel prices surged 24.1% in a single month. By contrast, service prices rose only 0.1%, while service prices excluding trade, transportation, and warehousing did not rise at all.
This is exactly what was mentioned earlier: It looks very hot on the outside, but not quite as hot underneath.
Recently, Brent crude oil climbed back above $100, with a cumulative increase of nearly 30% since August, and the energy shock has already begun to feed into production costs.

Why didn't BTC rebound immediately?
Because the market had been expecting not merely data "in line with expectations," but inflation significantly below expectations, thereby reducing the probability of rate hikes.
Although this result did not significantly exceed expectations, it also did not provide sufficient evidence of cooling. With PPI rising 5.4% year-on-year, the previous reading revised upward, and high oil prices and elevated U.S. Treasury yields added to the mix, risk assets still lack a clear upside catalyst.
On the other hand, rate-hike expectations had already been largely priced in, and BTC had already fallen earlier in the day. Therefore, tonight's data looks more like a failure to lift the alarm rather than the sudden emergence of a major new bearish factor. After the PPI release, BTC did not experience a sharp plunge, indicating that the market was already somewhat prepared for the 0.4% monthly increase.

The real direction will be determined by tomorrow night's CPI
Compared with PPI, the market is more concerned about the prices actually paid by consumers—that is, CPI.
The market currently expects U.S. August CPI to rise from 0.1% to 0.4% month-on-month, while core CPI may remain at 0.2% month-on-month, and year-on-year core CPI may fall from 2.5% to 2.4%.
If tomorrow night produces a combination of "higher headline CPI and core CPI holding at 0.2%," the market may view inflation as being driven mainly by energy, giving BTC an opportunity to rebound after the bearish news is priced in.
But if core CPI reaches 0.3% or higher, it would mean that more persistent inflation in areas such as rent, healthcare, and services is also heating up. Rate-hike expectations could rise further, leaving BTC and technology stocks under continued pressure.

Therefore, tonight's PPI does not show that "inflation is out of control," but rather that energy is once again pushing up U.S. production costs, while underlying inflation has not yet accelerated across the board.
The market's true directional choice will have to wait for tomorrow night's CPI release.