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Nvidia is at an interesting point right now: the AI story is still getting stronger, but the stock itself is losing momentum. That difference matters. NVDA is not breaking down structurally yet, but buyers need to show up soon if the recent pullback is going to turn into another continuation move.

NVDA closed the latest session at $223.67, down 0.91% on the day, with approximately 82.96M shares traded. The session ranged from $223.46 to $226.18. The stock is also around 5.4% below its $236.54 record high, while the latest seven-day move is roughly -2.1%, based on the September 3 close of $228.45.

The short-term structure has clearly cooled. NVDA closed around $230.36 on September 4, then moved lower to $225.73 on September 8 and $223.67 on September 9. The important part is that the stock is now sitting close to the lower end of the latest trading range instead of recovering back toward $230. That keeps sellers in control of the immediate momentum.

The fundamental story, however, remains strong. Nvidia announced plans to expand AI data-center capacity in Australia to as much as 2 GW by 2027, working with local cloud and data-center companies. That is another example of Nvidia positioning itself around the entire AI infrastructure buildout rather than simply selling GPUs.

There is also a risk investors cannot ignore today. The U.S. Justice Department is investigating Nvidia's $17B licensing arrangement with AI chip startup Groq over whether the structure was designed to avoid antitrust scrutiny. Reuters reports that the deal is unlikely to be reversed, but the investigation adds another layer of regulatory uncertainty around Nvidia's aggressive expansion across the AI ecosystem.

Technically, $223–$224 is the first support area I’m watching because the latest session closed almost directly around it. If buyers defend this zone and push NVDA back above $226–$228, short-term momentum could start recovering. Above that, $230–$231 becomes the next important resistance, followed by the $234.76 recent high.

The bigger resistance is $234–$237. That zone contains the recent high and sits close to the stock's record area. A clean breakout through $236.54 with strong volume would be a meaningful signal that the pullback has ended and buyers are attempting to establish a new high.

On the downside, a decisive break below $223 would make the current setup weaker. I would then watch $220 first, followed by the $216–$218 area. If $216 fails as well, the market could start looking for a deeper retracement rather than a simple pullback.

Trading strategy

My preferred bullish setup is not buying NVDA simply because the AI narrative remains strong. I want price confirmation. The first opportunity would be a reclaim of $226–$228, followed by a successful retest of that zone. If buyers can turn it into support, I would look for $230–$231 as TP1, $234–$235 as TP2 and $236.54 as TP3.

A stronger breakout above $236.54 would change the setup completely. That would be the confirmation I want for a potential continuation trade toward fresh highs, rather than trying to predict the breakout beforehand.

There is also a support-based long possibility around $223–$224, but I would only take it after seeing an actual bullish reaction from that area. If price simply breaks through $223, I would not try to catch the falling move. For that setup, the invalidation would be below approximately $220, depending on the entry and confirmation.

The bearish setup becomes active if NVDA loses $223 with strong selling volume and fails to reclaim it. In that case, I would watch $220 first, then $216–$218. A sustained move below $216 would significantly weaken the short-term bullish structure and make a deeper correction more likely.

For risk management, I would keep the initial risk around 1% of trading capital, with 2% only for a strongly confirmed setup. If entering around $227 after a confirmed reclaim with an invalidation around $223, the risk is approximately $4 per share. A move toward $234–$235 would provide roughly $7–$8 upside per share, giving a potentially attractive reward-to-risk profile if the breakout is properly confirmed.

The broader market is another factor here. The S&P 500 fell 0.48% and Nasdaq dropped 0.64% in the latest session as oil moved above $100 and Treasury yields remained elevated. That environment can make high-valuation AI stocks more sensitive to changes in rates and risk appetite.

My current NVDA bias is neutral to slightly bearish below $228, because short-term momentum is still weak. A reclaim of $228 would improve the setup, $231 would strengthen it further, and a breakout above $236.54 would be the strongest bullish confirmation. On the other side, losing $223 opens the door toward $220 and potentially $216–$218.

For me, the important trade is not predicting whether Nvidia will eventually make another all-time high. The question is whether buyers can first reclaim the levels they just lost. If they do, the AI narrative has a chart to support it. If they don't, the stock may need more time to reset before the next major move.

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