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$SPCX

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$SPCX at $146.57: The stock has made a powerful move back above its $135 IPO reference, but the real test is only beginning. After trading below the IPO level, SPCX has now climbed roughly 8.6% above $135, bringing the market much closer to the critical $150 zone. The question has shifted from “can SPCX recover?” to something more important: can the current momentum survive the enormous supply increase created by recent share unlocks?

THE $150 BATTLE IS NOW CLOSE

At $146.57, SPCX is only about 2.3% below $150. That makes the $150 area the clearest psychological resistance on the chart right now. A clean breakout above it would represent a major change in short-term sentiment because the stock would be moving beyond the level that previously capped the recovery narrative.

But there is a difference between touching $150 and establishing support above it. If buyers push through $150 and maintain that level with strong volume, the breakout becomes much more convincing. If the stock repeatedly rejects the zone, traders could see another round of profit-taking before the next attempt.

THE IPO LEVEL HAS CHANGED ROLE

The $135 level is becoming increasingly interesting.

Previously, $135 represented the IPO reference that SPCX had fallen below. Now that the stock has recovered to $146.57, the same level can potentially transform from resistance into a support zone.

That is an important technical transition. If future pullbacks hold comfortably above $135, it would suggest that buyers are willing to defend the recovery instead of simply chasing the initial rebound. A move back below $135, particularly with expanding selling volume, would weaken that structure.

For now, the price action is telling us that demand has managed to absorb at least part of the unlock-related pressure.

THE UNLOCK IS STILL THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM

Approximately 319 million additional shares became eligible for trading on August 20, following an even larger release of roughly 911.5 million shares earlier in August.

Unlocked shares do not automatically mean that all of them are sold. That distinction matters. The real market impact depends on how many holders actually decide to sell and whether new demand is strong enough to absorb that supply.

SPCX’s recent recovery is therefore an interesting signal. Despite the enormous amount of additional tradable stock, buyers have pushed the price significantly higher from the low-$130s.

That does not eliminate the supply risk, but it does show that the market is currently capable of absorbing substantial selling interest.

FUNDAMENTALS ARE KEEPING THE BULL CASE ALIVE

The reason buyers may be willing to absorb that supply is the underlying growth story.

SPCX’s latest Q2 performance showed approximately $7.8 billion in revenue, representing around 92% year-over-year growth, while adjusted EBITDA increased roughly 191% to $3.5 billion.

Those numbers provide a powerful fundamental backdrop to the price recovery.

Connectivity revenue contributed approximately $4.3 billion, while AI-related revenue reached around $2.6 billion, up approximately 247% year over year.

That AI growth rate is arguably one of the most important numbers in the entire story.

AI IS CHANGING THE VALUATION NARRATIVE

SPCX is increasingly being viewed through more than a traditional connectivity or space-infrastructure lens.

A roughly 247% YoY increase in AI revenue suggests that AI infrastructure is becoming a meaningful component of the company's growth profile. If that growth continues, investors may increasingly focus on future computing capacity, infrastructure expansion and the potential scale of AI-related revenue.

There is, however, another side to the equation.

AI infrastructure is capital intensive.

Q2 capital expenditure reached approximately $18.4 billion, reflecting the enormous investment required to expand infrastructure and support future growth. For bullish investors, that spending represents capacity being built for a potentially much larger business. For cautious investors, it raises questions around capital intensity, cash requirements and how efficiently those investments translate into future earnings.

STARLINK ADDS ANOTHER GROWTH ENGINE

The connectivity story is also expanding.

Starlink subscribers reached approximately 12 million, roughly double the previous level highlighted in the original investment thesis. That gives SPCX another major growth engine alongside AI.

This combination is what makes the current valuation debate particularly interesting.

AI provides high-growth infrastructure exposure.

Starlink provides an expanding connectivity ecosystem.

The company is simultaneously investing heavily in infrastructure to support future demand.

The market now has to decide how much of that future growth should already be reflected in the stock price.

THE PRICE MAP FROM $146.57

At the current $146.57, I would organize the short-term structure around four major zones.

$150 — breakout test. A decisive move above this level could accelerate momentum and attract additional buyers.

$140–$145 — near-term structure. Holding this region during a pullback would help demonstrate that buyers are maintaining control after the recent advance.

$135 — IPO/support reference. Losing this level would weaken the current recovery structure and bring renewed attention to supply pressure.

$120–$125 — deeper downside zone. If the recovery fails completely, this becomes an important area for the market to reassess demand.

Below that, the broader $105–$110 region remains a much deeper historical reference rather than an immediate target.

THE BULL CASE

The strongest bullish setup would be simple: SPCX remains above $140, pushes through $150 with convincing volume and then turns $150 into support.

That would tell the market that buyers are no longer merely recovering from the unlock shock. They are beginning to price in the company's longer-term AI and connectivity growth.

A sustained move beyond $150 could then open the door to a new phase of price discovery.

THE BEAR CASE

The bearish scenario does not require the fundamentals to suddenly collapse.

SPCX could simply fail to break $150, experience heavy profit-taking and fall back toward $140 or $135.

If that decline occurs alongside rising selling volume, it would suggest that unlock-related supply remains powerful enough to overwhelm fresh demand.

That is why the reaction around $150 may be more informative than the rally from $135 to $146.57 itself.

MY CURRENT MARKET VIEW

At $146.57, the setup looks considerably stronger than it did when SPCX was trading below its IPO price, but I would still separate momentum from confirmation.

The sequence I am watching is:

$146.57 → $150 breakout → $150 hold → higher lows → continuation.

If that sequence develops, the market could increasingly shift its attention away from the unlock and toward AI growth, Starlink expansion and the company's long-term infrastructure opportunity.

If $150 repeatedly rejects price, the market may need another consolidation phase before attempting the breakout again.

The numbers summarize the entire debate:

$146.57 current price
$150 psychological resistance
$135 IPO reference
319M recent shares unlocked
~911.5M earlier shares unlocked
$7.8B Q2 revenue
+92% YoY revenue growth
+247% YoY AI revenue growth
~12M Starlink subscribers
$18.4B Q2 capex

SPCX is now close enough to $150 that the next move could reveal much more than just short-term momentum.
The real battle is between newly available supply and accelerating business growth.
At $146.57, buyers have already won one part of that battle.
$150 will show whether they can win the next one.
#SpaceX #Starlink #SPCX