#RobinhoodActsAsIPOUnderwriterForFirstTime
#HOOD has already made the breakout move. Now it has to prove it can hold it.

Robinhood is coming into the September 8 session with a very different chart from just a few weeks ago.

The latest completed regular session closed at $122.11, down 2.09% on roughly 23.7M shares. The previous session was the real attention-grabber: HOOD jumped 16.57% to $124.72, with more than 51.6M shares traded.

So the question isn't whether momentum exists.

It clearly does.

The question is whether buyers have enough strength left to take out the $124.70–$124.88 resistance zone.

Current market snapshot

Latest regular-session close: $122.11
Previous close: $124.72
Latest session change: -2.09%
Latest session volume: ~23.7M
Recent high: $124.88
52-week range: $63.52–$153.86

There is no meaningful “24h change” for the stock in the crypto sense because HOOD trades during U.S. equity-market hours. The latest full session was September 4 because U.S. markets were closed September 7 for Labor Day.

Why is HOOD moving?

This rally has several drivers rather than one headline.

Morgan Stanley recently upgraded Robinhood to Overweight and raised its price target to $150, arguing that the company is becoming less dependent on crypto through prediction markets, asset-based revenue and a wider financial-product ecosystem.

There is also a new strategic angle: Robinhood has been named an underwriter for the upcoming Oura IPO, its first official move into IPO underwriting. That matters because management is trying to turn Robinhood from simply a retail trading app into a broader financial platform.

And the crypto side hasn't disappeared either.

Robinhood Chain activity has recently reached very high levels, adding another potential revenue channel — although I would treat that as a developing catalyst rather than pricing the entire stock around it.

Recent price action and structure

The chart has become strongly bullish.

HOOD moved from $103.51 on September 1 to $124.72 on September 3, before pulling back to $122.11.

That is a huge move in a very short period.

The good part for bulls is that the larger trend remains above the major moving averages. The 20-day SMA is around $117.90, while the 50-day SMA is around $110.95. RSI near 64.7 shows strong momentum without being at an extreme level yet. ADX around 51 also points to a strong existing trend.

But after a move of this size, chasing the first green candle is not the setup I want.

Key levels

Resistance: $124.70–$124.88

This is the immediate decision zone. It contains the recent high and is the level bulls need to reclaim.

Above that:

$130 becomes the first psychological target.

Then:

$138–$140

And if momentum turns into a genuine continuation move:

$150 becomes the larger target, which also lines up with Morgan Stanley's current price objective.

On the downside:

$119.80–$120 is the first important support area.

Below that:

$117–$118 becomes critical, especially because it sits close to the 20-day average.

Then:

$110–$112 is the next major support zone around the 50-day structure.

Volume and momentum

The volume confirms that the recent move was not a quiet drift higher.

September 3 produced more than 51.6M shares, compared with roughly 23.7M on September 4 and an average daily volume around 23.7M in the historical data.

That tells me the breakout attempt attracted serious participation.

But Friday's lower close after Thursday's huge expansion is exactly why I want confirmation rather than assuming the breakout is already complete.

Options positioning

Options activity has also been elevated.

On September 4, about 386.7K option contracts traded, with calls representing roughly 66% of volume. The prior session saw more than 682K contracts.

That is supportive of bullish sentiment, but it also tells us positioning is active enough for sharp volatility around key levels.

I don't have a reliable current stock-style funding-rate or liquidation metric for HOOD, so I would not manufacture one.

BTC and broader market context

HOOD has become increasingly sensitive to the broader risk environment because its business now touches equities, crypto, prediction markets and other higher-beta trading activity.

Bitcoin has recently been trading around the $80K area, while broader markets are dealing with a more complicated macro backdrop.

Oil has moved sharply higher amid Middle East tensions, Treasury yields are elevated, and investors are heading into important U.S. inflation data this week. That combination can quickly change the appetite for high-beta names such as HOOD.

So even if HOOD's company-specific story remains strong, the macro tape still matters.

Bullish scenario

I want to see a clean break above $124.88, preferably with strong volume, followed by a successful retest of the $124–125 area.

If that happens, the structure opens toward:

TP1: $130
TP2: $138–140
TP3: $150

A sustained move above $125 would tell me the recent spike was more than a one-day momentum event.

Bearish scenario

The first warning would be a rejection around $124–125 followed by a loss of $119.80.

A decisive break below the $117–118 area would be more important because it would put price back below the 20-day trend structure.

Below that, $110–112 becomes the next downside zone.

A break below $110 would materially weaken the current bullish thesis.

Trading setup

I would not chase HOOD at the middle of this range.

The cleaner momentum setup is:

Entry: $125–126 only after a confirmed breakout and retest
Stop: around $118.50
TP1: $130
TP2: $140
TP3: $150

From a $125 entry with an $118.50 stop, the approximate reward/risk is:

TP1: ~0.8R
TP2: ~2.3R
TP3: ~3.8R

That makes TP1 more of a partial-profit level, while the better asymmetry comes from holding part of the position for TP2/TP3.

Risk management

HOOD is volatile enough that I would keep the risk small.

For a trade like this, 1% of account equity is reasonable; 2% should be the upper end, not the default.

And position size should be calculated from the distance between entry and stop — not from how much money you want to put into HOOD.

Final verdict

Bias: Moderately bullish, but confirmation-dependent.

The trend is strong, the momentum indicators are constructive, and the fundamental story is becoming broader than crypto alone.

But HOOD is now sitting directly underneath a major resistance zone after an unusually large move.

For me, $124.88 is the line that matters.

Break and hold it with volume → bullish continuation becomes much more convincing.

Reject it and lose $119.80 → the market likely needs to cool off before another attempt.

I would rather miss the first few dollars of a confirmed breakout than buy directly into resistance and hope the breakout happens.

$HOOD

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@Gate_Square @GateSquare