At this stage of the bull market, I basically don’t look at obvious positives like rate cuts and liquidity injections. Instead, I pay much closer attention to the chip structure and leverage levels.

Around May 19, 2021, we had zero interest rates and massive liquidity injections, with liquidity as abundant as could be. Yet BTC plunged 60% in a single day, while ETH dropped straight from $4,200 to $1,700. October 2025 followed the same pattern: tariffs were merely the excuse; the real problem was that leverage had already piled up to the breaking point. So don’t wait for some major negative event to serve as a top signal—by the time it arrives, many people will already be unable to get out.

BTC is now back near $80,000, after briefly touching $82,000 recently. If positive news keeps coming one after another but the price becomes increasingly sluggish, that’s when you really need to be careful. The danger has never been the negative news itself, but rather everyone believing prices can still rise, leverage continuing to climb, while the market has little fresh buying left.
I’ll watch ETH separately. It’s around $2,500 now, and its short-term strength or weakness is written plainly on the chart. Whether it can break through $2,550–$2,600 is crucial. If BTC moves sideways while ETH continues to attract capital, this rally isn’t over yet. But if ETH also starts failing to rise on positive news and surging on volume only to retreat, that’s more than a minor issue.

A top never appears out of nowhere. Positive news gradually loses its impact, the chip structure gradually becomes more fragile, and then it suddenly snaps. So don’t spend every day studying which piece of news will trigger a crash—pay more attention to your own emotions.

When the thought “How could this market possibly fall?” pops into your head, the danger is basically already standing at the door.