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Renowned macro trader Raoul Pal: The value of L1s lies in everything they secure, not cash flow

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Mars Finance reports that Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor, published a post discussing how to value L1s. Using Ethereum as an example, he said that if it were shut down, the stablecoins, DeFi, all L2s, NFTs, and more built on it would all become worthless. Pal stated that L1s attract assets, capital, and velocity through intellectual density. Ethereum has the most developers, programmability, and a complete ecosystem. He said he has heard the DCF argument many times and believes it is completely meaningless: the subject of valuation is not cash flow, but everything the chain secures. He said that as we enter the index era, the entire human economy and a completely new agent economy come on-chain, and enormous value will accumulate in these base layers. All of this is self-evident.
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DeFiSecurity
3 hours ago
So is ETH the beta of the index era? The bet is on the growth of the entire on-chain GDP—I buy this narrative.
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ColdWalletGuard
4 hours ago
The number of developers is the moat; no other L1 can catch up with Ethereum’s ecosystem depth.
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LeekGuardian
4 hours ago
Cash-flow thinking is TradFi’s default; the on-chain economy needs a new yardstick.
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FloorSentry
4 hours ago
Raoul’s perspective is quite interesting: valuing L1 as economic infrastructure—not by how much it earns now, but by how much runs on top of it.
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MaxDD_Controller
5 hours ago
First Review
The phrase “high intellectual density” is absolutely spot-on—new things naturally emerge where talent clusters. The L1 war actually ended a long time ago.
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