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Today’s macro market overview and trading strategy:
I. Interest rate expectations: the probability of a September rate hike is 56%; tonight’s U.S. August CPI will be a key catalyst. U.S. stocks rebounded slightly overnight, the U.S. Dollar Index strengthened, and gold came under pressure and pulled back; BTC-ETF saw continued net inflows, with no sudden regulatory developments for now.
II. Market scan:
BTC spot price: $79,900
Support: 77,200–77,500; defensive floor: 74,800
Resistance: 81,300, 83,000
Trading volume is moderate. Volatility will increase before and after the CPI release, with liquidations on both sides of the derivatives market.
III. Watchlist selection
BTC, ETH, and highly liquid large-cap coins; avoid small-cap altcoins.
IV. Trading plans:
Bullish scenario｜Holding above 81,300 (CPI below expectations): do not chase higher prices; take profit in batches around 83,000, while remaining alert to a pullback as positive news is priced in.
Bearish scenario｜A decisive break below 77,200 (CPI above expectations): do not open large long positions; wait for 74,800 to stabilize, and do not blindly buy the dip.
Range-bound scenario｜77,500–81,300 range: use light positions for short-term trades, proactively reduce positions before the data release, and wait for a directional breakout.
Today’s prohibitions: high-leverage, heavy-position trading is strictly prohibited before and after CPI; do not open trades without stop-losses; do not subjectively predict the data outcome!