U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, while the market expected only around 55,000, nearly three times higher than expected; the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%

Based on this data alone, it is actually short-term bearish for BTC

The reason is straightforward: Nonfarm payrolls far exceeded expectations → U.S. employment is stronger than the market thought → the Federal Reserve has no need to rush into rate cuts → rate-cut expectations cool → U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar face upward pressure → BTC comes under short-term pressure

But there is an easily overlooked point: 162,000 looks strong, but in the context of this year's employment environment, it is not exceptionally strong employment data. The market previously expected only 55K, largely because July's employment data was extremely weak, so this looks more like a clear rebound than a return to a high-growth employment cycle

At the same time, what the market is truly focused on now is whether inflation can continue to cool before the Federal Reserve meeting on September 16

So for BTC, I think being above $80,000 in the next phase would be bullish

Before the nonfarm payrolls release, BTC had already reclaimed the area around $80,000, indicating that bulls themselves have financial and sentiment support. If the bearish impact of the data is quickly absorbed by the market and BTC can hold $80,000, it would show that the market has not completely abandoned rate-cut expectations because of the employment data

Breaking below $80,000: short-term weakness. If the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields continue rising after the data release while BTC loses $80,000, these nonfarm payrolls could become a catalyst for a short-term pullback

So the key issue now is not whether the nonfarm payrolls are bearish or bullish, but whether BTC can hold $80,000. If it holds: the bearish impact of the nonfarm payrolls has been absorbed, and the market may still have room to continue moving higher.

If it breaks below: the market will start repricing lower rate-cut expectations, and short-term pullback pressure will increase significantly.

The next truly key data point is the U.S. CPI on September 11, which is more likely to determine the final direction of September rate-cut expectations

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