#TSLA

Tesla is trading around $380 in Thursday's session (last $379.9, up 6.4%, range $365.7-$380.4 as of 10:26 ET on Sept 3). The seven-session chart is a textbook base-and-breakout: after the July 29 low near $297, shares chopped in a $343-$358 band on August 25-28, broke out on August 31 with a 5.5% surge to $367.92 on roughly double the prior week's volume, digested on Sept 1-2 while holding about $356, and are now pressing $380 on a second impulsive leg. That is a higher-low continuation off the July low, constructive but colliding with the underside of the June breakdown zone, so the next few dollars carry more weight than the last few.

Support and resistance: SR1 $367-$370 is the August 31 breakout shelf that should hold any pullback; SR2 $355-$358 is the Sept 1-2 base; SR3 $345-$350 is the late-August floor defining the recovery. Above, R1 $388-$393 is the June supply shelf where early-July sellers cluster; R2 $400-$406 is the round number plus June closes; R3 $425-$433 is the early-July pre-crash high area.

Stops and targets from about $379: SL1 $372 for a band trade (below $370 means event-day momentum is fading), SL2 $364-$365 for a 1-4 week swing (a daily close below today's low invalidates the breakout bar), SL3 $349-$350 for trend holders (a break turns the rally back into a range). Targets: TP1 $390 at R1 for partials, close to the $390 consensus; TP2 $405 at R2 for swing-to-trend; TP3 $430 at R3 for the trend leg. Asymmetry is roughly 2:1 to TP2 using SL2 (about 4% risk vs 7% reward) and better than 3:1 to TP3.

Medium-term scenarios: in the bull case, tonight's Austin event shows real deployment intent rather than a showcase, with Cybercab pricing, production cadence and fleet expansion toward 25-50-plus vehicles in Texas within weeks; a daily close above $393 opens $405 and a retest of $425-$433, with the December record near $499 and the most bullish Street targets near $600. In the base case, a well-received but incremental reveal leads to a $360-$395 range into the next catalysts: Q3 delivery data, the Semi event on Sept 24 and earnings around Oct 21. In the bear case, the stock sells off through the event as Morgan Stanley warns, fleet numbers look thin and the elevated-rate tape bites, with the 10-year near 4.7-4.8%, oil above $90 and a payrolls print looming; losing $355 then $350 targets $320-$330 and reopens a test of the July low near $300.

Sentiment is a tug-of-war between momentum and valuation. Drivers are stacked: the Cybercab launch tonight, driverless Model Y robotaxis running in Austin, Dallas, Houston, Miami, Orlando and Tampa, a reported 2,500-robotaxi 2026 rollout target, France registrations up 279% year over year in August and fresh Musk humanoid-robot comments on Sept 3. Institutions are split: the average analyst target is $390.09 with a Buy tilt; Morgan Stanley keeps Equal-Weight and a $400 target but warns the stock can sell off through the event; Barclays doubts much new information; JPMorgan came away from a factory tour with higher conviction in the robotaxi ramp. The bear case is mostly valuation, with the trailing P/E near 330, so bulls are asking tonight's event to justify the multiple.

Trading plan: avoid chasing full size into a binary event. If flat, wait for the post-event reaction and buy either a retest of $367-$370 that holds or a confirmed daily close above $393; if already long, take first partials at $388-$390, move the stop toward SL1 once $393 clears and keep the hard line at SL2 $365, sizing so the SL3 scenario of roughly 7-8% downside stays tolerable. Treat everything between $350 and $393 as a range until one side breaks, and let tonight's fleet, price and timeline details plus the macro tape decide the next step rather than pre-positioning all the risk. $TSLA ‌