#USIranTensionsOilSurges5.7%

If the congestion in the Strait of Hormuz continues, the rise could last for weeks or even months, but the current movement is likely to become much more volatile rather than just rising by 5-6% each day.

As of September 2, 2026, Brent is trading around $95 and WTI around $90; it previously briefly rose to $97 and $92.

Scenario Map

Scenario Probable oil reaction Timeline
Reducing diplomatic tensions / Strait of Hormuz blockage normalizes Brent towards $80-85 Days-weeks
Current disruption continues, but shipments move Brent $90-105 Several weeks-months
Strait of Hormuz blockage effectively shuts down Brent $110-130+ possible Weeks-months
Wider regional conflict + sustained export losses $130-150+ risk Potentially months

The key distinction is not just military headlines, but the physical number of barrels lost.

The Strait of Hormuz previously carried about a fifth of global oil shipments. Current ship traffic has dropped sharply: previews showed only four commodity ships passing through on Tuesday; this figure was around 13 on a 10-day average. Additionally, two Saudi supertankers, each carrying approximately 2 million barrels of oil, were attacked.

Why shouldn't I assume $100 is the price ceiling?

The market is already showing it can tolerate some disruptions. Despite the conflict, it reported that 17 million barrels of oil passed through the Hormuz Canal on Monday. And Gulf exports, a combination of Hormuz traffic and alternative routes, had recovered to about 80% of pre-war levels.

This means it's possible for Brent oil to remain at the $100-105 level without a complete shutdown, but sustainably rising above $110 requires proof that physical supply has truly disappeared.

There's another significant buffer: global demand is weakening. The average forecast for Brent oil in 2026 is around $85, according to a recent analyst survey, while the International Energy Agency expects oil demand to fall by about 1.6 million barrels per day this year.

Bullish Triggers to Watch

Rather than focusing on daily percentage gains, I would focus on these three indicators:

1. Hormuz tanker traffic
If it remains near current lows for a few weeks, the risk premium should continue to rise.

2. Real production/export losses
If Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, or Kuwait begin to lose significant export capacity (not just shipping delays), a move above $110 becomes much more credible.

3. Diesel instead of crude oil
This could be a bigger economic problem. Refinery capacity is already limited, and diesel markets are reportedly extremely restricted.

In conclusion

I think the $90-100 region could persist for quite a long time, even without a complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz. However, a sustained move above the $105-110 level for Brent oil prices would require the market to conclude that global physical supply is actually decreasing.

Conversely, if Washington and Tehran reach even a limited shipping agreement, the geopolitical premium could disappear very quickly, meaning a $10-15 drop in Brent oil prices would not be surprising.

The biggest risk is not today's 5.7% jump. It's a prolonged disruption that shifts the market's assumption from a "temporary geopolitical premium" to a "structural shortage."