#WarshJacksonHolePreviewMarketsFocusOnRates

The Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Warsh is the last major policy signal before the September FOMC and the market is still absorbing the tone. After previous communication missteps the bar was clear: provide a more precise read on inflation and the policy path. Understanding the next phase requires looking at the rate-sensitive chart, the levels, and the broader context step by step.
TLT on the daily timeframe is the purest real-time scoreboard for that uncertainty. Price closed at 82.87 after a mild pullback. The 50-period EMA sits at 83.27 and the 200-period EMA is overhead at 84.35. Bollinger Bands stretch from 81.42 to 83.57 with the middle band near 82.49. Price is trading just below the 50-period EMA and inside the lower half of the band. The next visible resistance cluster sits near 83.57–84.35. Support starts at 81.42 and the deeper levels below.
RSI is at 50.20, neutral and with room in both directions. MACD has flattened near the zero line, consistent with a market that is waiting rather than trending.
Step one is the immediate pivot. A reclaim and hold of the 50-period EMA at 83.27 on rising volume would be the first sign that the speech tone is being interpreted as supportive for bonds. Acceptance above 83.27 opens the door to a retest of 84.35 and potentially the higher resistance zone near 87.
Step two is the downside filter. Failure to hold 82.49 on a daily closing basis would likely send price toward 81.42. A break of that level would open the door to deeper support and signal that the market is pricing a more hawkish or at least less accommodative stance.
Step three is the fundamental context. A speech that leaned toward patience and data-dependence would support the existing bid in rate-sensitive assets. A more cautious or hawkish tone would force an immediate re-pricing of the dollar, real yields, and high-duration names. The September meeting is now the next hard date, and everything said at Jackson Hole will be measured against the data that arrives between now and then.
My take is straightforward. I am treating 83.27 as the immediate pivot and 81.42 as the short-term trend filter. Until the post-speech structure stabilizes, size stays measured. Clarity is always preferable to another round of carefully balanced language.
Final point: the next few daily closes on TLT will matter more than any single session. A hold above 83.27 keeps the bullish case for bonds alive. A break under 81.42 shifts the short-term bias lower until proven otherwise.
How are you reading the remarks so far? Did the tone feel clearer than previous communications, and has that changed your view on rate-sensitive assets? Share your take.
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