Tonight’s market action can serve as a live textbook: 3,000 points slashed on the livestream, ETH slashed by 100 points—those who missed the livestream, get over here. (RSI 82, OB breakdown, triangle breakdown, Waller’s speech, good news failing to lift prices and instead triggering a drop—the retail crowd is shouting that this is completely outrageous. The gold-medal instructor will explain this move through five key points.)

Point One: What does ETH’s daily RSI at 82 mean? One-sentence takeaway: “An RSI above 80 is not a signal to short immediately, but it is definitely a warning not to chase longs.” How to explain it: First explain what RSI is in plain language: “RSI is like a thermometer, ranging from 0 to 100 degrees. Above 70 degrees is called ‘fever’ (overbought), while below 30 degrees is called ‘frozen’ (oversold).” “ETH’s daily RSI reached 82. What does that mean? It’s like a person’s temperature reaching 39°C—not necessarily a sign that you need to be hospitalized immediately, but you definitely shouldn’t go run a marathon at that point.” Use this move as a live textbook: “On August 21, ETH’s RSI reached 86, while the price was $2,448. What happened afterward? It didn’t fall immediately; it surged to $2,534.” “See that? Overbought does not equal an immediate drop. In a strong trend, RSI can stay above 80 for a week or even longer. Those who shorted at RSI 86 on August 21 were dragged up to $2,534 and stopped out.” “But! ETH rose from $2,000 to $2,534, a 27% gain, with RSI at 82. If you chase longs at this point, it’s like starting a marathon only in the final 500 meters—you’re the one left holding the bag.” Use historical patterns and data: “In the past, after ETH’s daily RSI exceeded 80, a pullback of at least 5%-10% occurred within an average of 5-10 trading days. It’s not 100%, but the probability is high.” “This time, the price has already pulled back 3%, from $2,534 to the current $2,455. If $2,470 fails to hold, the next target is $2,400-$2,430.” Teach followers the correct way to use it: “RSI 80+ → don’t chase longs, don’t add to positions, and move up the stop-loss on existing long positions to protect profits.” “RSI 80+ + bearish divergence + rejection at a key resistance level → only then do you have the three elements for considering a short; none can be missing.” “Remember: overbought is a ‘position-reduction signal,’ not a ‘short signal.’”

Point Two: How should you use the $2,475-$2,519 OB zone? One-sentence takeaway: “An OB is not a single line; it’s a battlefield. When the price enters the OB, your job is not to act immediately, but to see who wins.” How to explain it: First explain what an OB is in plain language: “OB stands for Order Block. It is one of the core concepts in SMC.” “Think of it this way: large funds (smart money) built substantial positions in this area, leaving behind a large number of unfilled orders. When the price returns, these orders may trigger a reaction.” “A bullish OB means large funds bought heavily there and may buy again when the price falls back. A bearish OB is the opposite.” Use tonight’s market action as a real-time lesson: “On the 4H chart, the bullish OB is at $2,475-$2,519. At 22:00 tonight, a 15-minute candle plunged directly into it, reaching a low of $2,469.” “Pay attention: When it first touched the lower edge of the OB at $2,475, it did bounce—rebounding to $2,492 at 22:15 and surging to $2,526 at 22:30. This was the OB support taking effect.” “But! The 00:00 candle directly broke below $2,475, reaching a low of $2,446. What does this show? The OB support failed.” Teach followers the three practical steps for using an OB: “Step One: Wait for the price to enter the OB zone; don’t place orders in advance.” “Step Two: Check whether reaction candles appear on lower time frames (15min/5min)—long lower wicks, hammer candles, or engulfing patterns.” “Step Three: Wait for confirmation. Only when a reversal candle appears inside the OB and the lower-time-frame structure breaks out is it an entry point. Don’t rush in as soon as the price touches the OB.” “Tonight was textbook: The first touch of the OB triggered a reaction (bouncing to $2,526), but the second touch broke straight through it. An OB is not an iron floor.” What should you do when an OB fails? “A bullish OB is broken by a solid candle that closes below it → support turns into resistance.” “If ETH later rebounds to the $2,475-$2,519 area, it will instead become a resistance zone for shorts.” “This is what SMC calls a ‘flip’—support turns into resistance, and resistance turns into support.”

Point Three: The two ways an ascending triangle can play out. One-sentence takeaway: “A triangle is not for betting on direction; it is for waiting for direction. Act only after the breakout, and your win rate is three times higher.” How to explain it: First draw the chart (gesture with your hands or show a chart): “What does an ascending triangle look like? A horizontal line on top (resistance), an ascending trendline below (support), with the price narrowing between them.” “ETH this time: The resistance above is $2,533, which was tested three times without a break; the ascending trendline below runs from $2,415 to $2,470, rising higher and higher.” Explain the two scenarios. Scenario A: Breakout upward (original probability: 60%): “A 4H close above $2,535 with a volume-backed breakout → bullish confirmation.” “Targets: first $2,555 (the liquidation concentration zone), then $2,600.” “Stop-loss: below $2,510.” “Why was the original probability said to be 60%? Because of continued ETF inflows and the broader uptrend; statistically, an upside breakout was originally more likely.” Scenario B: Breakdown downward (currently happening!): “A 1H close below $2,470 → the lower boundary of the triangle fails, confirming a bearish outlook.” “Targets: $2,430 → $2,400 → $2,399 (the 4H Bollinger lower band).” “Stop-loss: above $2,485.” “The current price is $2,455, so it is already following Scenario B.” Core lesson: “90% of retail traders rush into positions before the triangle has broken out, betting on direction. They make a little if they guess correctly and lose a lot if they guess wrong.” “The correct approach: Wait! Wait for the closing price to confirm a breakout or breakdown before acting.” “If you go long only after a break above $2,535, you may earn $20 less, but your win rate is much higher. If you short only after a break below $2,470, your entry is $15 lower, but you are trading with the trend.” “What does it mean when the triangle keeps narrowing? A major move is imminent. At this point, hold your fire and wait for the signal gun to go off.” What should you do now? “It has already broken below $2,470. If you’re holding shorts, keep holding them and move the stop-loss up to $2,485.” “If you want to go long, don’t rush; wait for the price to reach the $2,400-$2,430 area and see whether stabilization signals appear.” “If you’re flat, that’s the most comfortable position—wait for the next structure.”

Point Four: The impact of PCE at 3.7% on crypto. One-sentence takeaway: “Inflation data does not directly determine crypto prices, but it determines which way the Federal Reserve’s hand moves, and the Fed’s hand determines where the market’s money flows.” How to explain it: Explain PCE in plain language: “PCE is the inflation indicator most closely watched by the Federal Reserve, like the final exam a teacher cares about most.” “The target is 2%, while this reading came in at 3.7%, nearly twice as high. What does that mean? Your target was 60 points to pass, but you scored 37.” “More importantly, PCE has remained above the 2% target for 65 consecutive months. Five years have passed, and inflation still hasn’t been brought down.” Transmission chain (draw it for followers): “High PCE → the Federal Reserve may raise rates → the dollar rises and Treasury yields rise → funds flow out of high-risk assets (crypto and tech stocks) → crypto prices fall.” “Conversely: Low PCE → no rate hike or even a rate cut → the dollar falls → funds flow into risk assets → crypto prices rise.” “Remember this chain: inflation → interest rates → the dollar → crypto. Four transmission steps, each linked to the next.” Use Waller’s speech tonight as an example: “What did Waller say at 22:00 tonight? Three key points:” “① ‘The inflation data do not show substantial improvement in the trend’—translation: inflation is still too high, and I’m not satisfied.” “② ‘If inflation cannot return to 2% quickly, there is still work to do’—translation: a rate hike may be coming.” “③ ‘The credit market has shown almost no signs of policy restraint’—translation: current interest rates are not high enough and are not restraining the economy.” “Result: The probability of a September rate hike surged from 40% to 50%, while the probability of a December rate hike exceeded 90%.” “Market reaction: BTC crashed from $81,000 to $77,975, ETH crashed from $2,530 to $2,455, and gold and silver plunged.” “See that? This is the power of macro factors. In one sentence, tens of billions of dollars in market capitalization disappeared.” Teach followers how to use macro data: “For the 30 minutes before and after the release of monthly PCE, CPI, and nonfarm payrolls data, do not open new positions.” “During major Federal Reserve speeches (such as tonight’s Jackson Hole speech), stay flat or reduce positions and wait.” “This doesn’t mean you should stop trading; it means you shouldn’t place bets at the most uncertain times.” “Macro factors are not there to help you predict; they tell you when to stay out of danger.”

Point Five: Why hasn’t the price risen despite eight consecutive days of ETF inflows? One-sentence takeaway: “When good news fails to lift the price, that is the biggest bearish signal. Once good news known by everyone has already been reflected in the price, all that remains is profit-taking.” How to explain it: First lay out the facts: “The ETH ETF has seen net inflows for eight consecutive days, totaling more than $1 billion. On August 19, the one-day inflow was $189 million, the largest since last October.” “Logically speaking, with so much money buying ETH, the price should rise, right?” “But the reality is that ETH fell from $2,534 to $2,455. Good news kept coming, yet the price failed to rise and instead fell.” Explain why (three reasons). Reason One: Good news fully priced in: “The price rose when the ETF was approved, and everyone saw the news about eight consecutive days of ETF inflows.” “When everyone knows about a piece of good news, it has already been reflected in the price. Expectations fulfilled = the end of the bullish catalyst.” “Smart money buys before the good news is announced and sells when the news is reported—this is ‘buy the rumor, sell the fact.’” Reason Two: Profit-taking pressure: “ETH rose from below $2,000 to $2,534, so early entrants were already up more than 30%.” “ETF inflows gave them the perfect opportunity to distribute—the market had plenty of buy orders, so they could sell the coins they were holding.” “The data proves it: 70% of retail traders are long, but only 57% of top traders are long. Retail traders are taking the other side, while smart money is distributing.” Reason Three: Macro pressure outweighs spot buying: “ETFs buy tens of millions of dollars every day, but one sentence from the Federal Reserve can wipe out tens of billions of dollars in market capitalization.” “Spot buying is a trickle, while macro selling pressure is a devastating flood. They are not even on the same scale.” “That’s why you can’t trade based on just one indicator—ETF inflows are bullish, but rate-hike expectations are an even bigger bearish factor.” Teach followers how to identify “good news failing to lift prices”: “Be cautious when three signals appear at the same time:” “① Positive news keeps coming out (ETF inflows, institutional adoption).” “② But the price is repeatedly rejected at a key resistance level ($2,533 was tested three times without a break).” “③ Trading volume is rising, but the price is not (volume-price divergence).” “Good news failing to lift prices = someone is using the good news to distribute. At this point, follow the smart money, not the news.” Tie it back to tonight’s market action: “As soon as Waller spoke tonight, all the ETF buying was overwhelmed by macro selling pressure.” “Once $2,470 support broke, long-position stop-loss orders were triggered, creating a chain reaction—that’s why the drop was so fast and severe.”