#英伟达财报周 Analysis of Nvidia’s stock price movement after its earnings report

Post-earnings performance

August 26 close: $209.66 → August 27 close rose approximately 7.5% to $225, with market cap increasing by approximately $370 billion in one day to $5.4 trillion.
At least 13 investment banks raised their price targets in quick succession: Raymond James has the highest at $515, Bernstein at $400, JPMorgan at $320, Goldman Sachs at $300, with the average target at approximately $310+.

Three major highlights from the earnings report

1. Revenue was $96.2 billion (+106%), while data center revenue was $89 billion (+117%), comprehensively beating expectations.
2. Q3 guidance was $108 billion, up another 12% sequentially.
3. For the first time, FY28 guidance was provided a year in advance: revenue growth of over 70%—the biggest surprise, significantly improving growth visibility.

Outlook: Bullish bias, but increased volatility

Factors supporting the rise:

AI infrastructure demand is still exploding, with Jensen Huang saying, "AI has reached an inflection point; computing power equals revenue."
The FY28 guidance for 70%+ growth has eliminated concerns about "peak growth," shifting the valuation anchor from the current P/E to forward growth.
The Rubin platform is entering full-scale production, enabling a seamless product cycle transition.
Goldman Sachs explicitly stated that "the path to outperforming the sector over the coming months is clearer."

Risks to watch:

Scale ceiling: For a $5.4 trillion company to sustain 70%+ growth is becoming increasingly difficult mathematically, and any quarterly miss will be amplified.
Gross margin inflection point: Gross margin was 75% this quarter but is expected to decline; price wars or product mix changes could compress profits.
Supply bottlenecks: HBM/memory shortages are constraining shipments, and Q3 guidance could have been higher.
China risk: Q3 guidance assumes zero data center revenue from China, and geopolitical deterioration would further weigh on results.
The expectations bar has already been raised: The stock had risen more than 12% in the two weeks before the earnings report, creating pressure for a short-term pullback on a "sell-the-news" reaction.

Conclusion

The medium-term trend remains upward, but the stock may consolidate at high levels in the short term. The FY28 guidance is the core support, shifting the valuation logic from "Is it expensive now?" to "Can next year's growth be delivered?" The $225-230 range faces short-term profit-taking pressure; a pullback to $200-210 would be a better zone to watch for adding positions. A move higher requires Q3 actual results to continue exceeding guidance. Overall, it remains the most certain core asset in the AI chip sector, but volatility will rise as its scale increases. $NVDA ‌