Chicago #PMI Data Takes the Pulse of the Markets

Immediately following the opening of US markets, the Chicago Business Barometer (Chicago PMI) data will be released on Friday, August 28, 2026, at 09:45 ET (16:45 GMT).

The Chicago PMI is a comprehensive indicator compiled by ISM-Chicago that measures business conditions in both manufacturing and service sectors in the region. Calculated from five sub-indices, including manufacturing, new orders, and employment, the data offers important clues about the direction of the national economy, although it is regional.

Expectations and Previous Data

Market expectations suggest the index could rise to 58.0 in August, compared to 57.6 in July 2026. Any data above the 50 threshold indicates that the regional economy continues to expand.

Why is the Data Important?

The Chicago PMI is closely watched by investors. The main reason for this is that it comes a day before the National Manufacturing PMI data and is seen as an early indicator for that data.

A higher-than-expected index (above 58.0) could boost confidence in the US economy and the dollar. This would support stocks with a perception of healthy growth, while potentially causing sell-offs in the bond market due to inflationary pressures. A lower-than-expected figure, on the other hand, would raise concerns about an economic slowdown.

Importance from a Federal Reserve Policy Perspective

In addition to the data, market attention will also be focused on Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, who will be speaking at Jackson Hole on the same day. The Chicago PMI data, along with key indicators such as inflation and employment, will be another data point shaping expectations for the Fed's September interest rate decision. In particular, the price sub-index within the index could provide early signals of inflationary pressures.

These assessments and comments are my personal opinions. They are not investment advice.

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