#GateStockInsightsChallenge $NVDA ‌The New Era of Memory Shortage: "AI Demand Will Continue Until 2030"

While the CEO of SK Hynix says "it will continue until the end of 2030," SanDisk states, "we are seeing a structurally massive demand for NAND." NVIDIA, meanwhile, explains that it has increased its supply commitment from $119 billion to $279 billion, and that this increase is largely due to memory purchases. The market is debating that the cyclical model it has been accustomed to for many years is being replaced by a new structural reality.

"The Memory Cycle is Dead": A Clear Message from the SK Hynix CEO

SK Hynix CEO Kwak Noh-Jung, in a statement made at the groundbreaking ceremony of its facility in Indiana on August 27, predicted that the memory shortage will continue until the end of 2030. More importantly, the logic behind Kwak's prediction points to a fundamental shift in how the industry operates: "In the past, the memory business was entirely commodity," says Kwak, emphasizing that with artificial intelligence, products like HBM are transforming into customized products developed with the customer from an early stage.

This transformation is fundamentally changing demand forecasting. According to Kwak, manufacturers can now predict demand in advance, preventing the sudden demand collapses experienced in the past. "Even if there is a downturn, it will be a slowdown or flattening rather than a sharp drop in demand," he says.

Structural Demand Outlook Across the Industry

SanDisk paints a similar picture. At its Investor Day in August 2026, the company announced that it forecasts mid-to-high annual revenue growth between fiscal years 2028-2030 and expects its non-GAAP gross profit margin to remain around 80%. SanDisk bases this outlook on its prediction that demand for NAND flash in AI data centers will reach 1.2 ZB by 2030.

The situation is even more striking for Winbond. The company announced that its customers want to extend existing long-term agreements until 2029 and even 2030, and that it has already begun negotiations to reserve capacity from its new Module B factory. Winbond predicts that memory supply could tighten even further in 2027 compared to 2026.

Deloitte and Kearney: "No New Supply Until 2029 or 2030"

Consulting giants Deloitte and Kearney also support this view. Deloitte notes that despite memory manufacturers increasing capital expenditures, new production capacity is not expected to come online before 2029 or 2030. Kearney predicts that manufacturers shifting their production capacity to the increasingly profitable HBM will create an imbalance in the standard DRAM market that will last until 2030.

A Different Voice: Morningstar's Skepticism

Despite all this optimism, Morningstar analysts are more cautious about SanDisk. Stating that they don't find SanDisk's claim of "this time it's different" convincing, Morningstar suggests that the commodity dynamics of NAND will create fluctuations in the long term and that a downturn could begin around 2029. According to Morningstar, long-term customer agreements serve to manage risk rather than completely prevent a downturn.

Leading players in the industry and consulting firms agree that the demand for AI has created a permanent transformation in the memory market and that the current shortage could continue until 2030. This represents a sharp departure from past cyclical patterns. However, Morningstar's warning reminds us that the cyclical nature inherent in commodity markets has not completely disappeared. In the coming period, the speed at which memory manufacturers implement capacity increases and whether the demand for artificial intelligence remains at the expected level will test the reality of this new structural framework.

All assessments and comments here are purely my personal opinions. This is not investment advice.

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