SpaceX and Tesla Are Merging?

Prediction markets are going wild: 71% probability before 2028

One has a $1.5 trillion market cap, the other $1.3 trillion. One launches rockets every day, the other builds electric cars every day. If Musk merged the two, it would instantly become the largest publicly traded company in human history, period.

You think it’s just a joke?

Kalshi’s prediction market shows that the probability of a merger before 2028 has already surged to 71%. On Polymarket, the probability of it happening by the end of 2027 is 55%.

Musk was pressed about it during Tesla’s July earnings report. He didn’t deny it, only saying that it “must go through the proper processes.”

The logic behind a merger is indeed compelling: Tesla is working on AI-powered cars, SpaceX has Starlink, Starship, and AI data centers, while xAI has Grok.

Put the three pieces together, and they cover everything from the Earth’s surface to outer space.

SpaceX would most likely be the acquiring company. With Musk’s super-voting power, he would still be the one calling the shots after the merger.

But the numbers have to be considered too: Tesla’s free cash flow turned negative in Q2, and full-year capital expenditures are expected to be no less than $25 billion;

SpaceX has $7 billion in net debt, while Tesla has $27 billion in debt.

Both are cash-burning behemoths. Would joining forces provide warmth, or just add more leverage?

What do you think? Is this once-in-a-century merger really coming, or is Musk once again selling the market a dream?