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Marvell's "Trillion-Dollar" Secret: The Giant Leap with NVIDIA's Approval

At COMPUTEX 2026, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang took the stage and, pointing to Marvell CEO Matt Murphy, said, "Ladies and gentlemen, here is the next trillion-dollar company."

At that moment, MRVL surged 30%. This wasn't a compliment; it was a check from NVIDIA to Marvell. Jensen Huang's words were the most concrete indication of the reshaping of power dynamics in the AI ecosystem.

1. The $12.2 Billion Google Deal

The bombshell on August 19th: Google could purchase up to $12.2 billion worth of shares in Marvell. The deal covers custom chips (AI inference accelerators, storage, and network controllers) connected to Google's TPU ecosystem. MRVL surged 10% on this news, while its competitor Broadcom fell 5%.

Strategic Significance: Google has been working with Broadcom for a decade. Now it's shifting to Marvell. This is one of the most significant developments strengthening Marvell's position in the specialized chip (ASIC) market. The structure of the agreement is also noteworthy: Google has been given a guarantee (warrant) giving it the right to purchase 58.97 million shares of MRVL at $206.58 each. The majority of the shares are earned based on Google's spending on Marvell products. A tranche of shares is opened for every $500 million in qualified revenue, and this process continues until fiscal year 2033. This structure provides Marvell with long-term revenue visibility while ensuring Google's supply of specialized chips.

2. Marvell's Hidden Growth Engine: Memory Revolution

On August 4th, Marvell announced a new generation of products in AI memory infrastructure. These products aim to solve memory bottlenecks in data centers:

Bravera SC6 SSD Controller: Offers 2x the performance of its predecessor with PCIe 6.0. It reduces GPU lag by moving AI's KV cache needs to SSDs. This is critical, especially for improving inference performance with large language models.

Structera X CXL Memory Expansion: Enables hyperscalers to scale memory independently of computing. This provides data center operators with more flexible resource management.

Photonic Fabric Optical Shared Memory: Promises 2-3 times higher token throughput in existing data centers by sharing up to 32TB of hot KV cache over up to 50 meters. This technology is a product of the optical connectivity capabilities Marvell acquired through its Celestial AI acquisition.

CEO Will Chu: "AI infrastructure is now moving from isolated servers to systems where computing, memory, and connectivity work seamlessly." This vision shapes Marvell's entire product portfolio.

3. $250 Million Investment in India

On July 29th, Marvell announced a $250 million investment to expand its Bangalore facility. This move has three strategic goals:

• Geographic diversification against trade restrictions in China
• Access to the global AI talent pool
• Establishing an engineering base outside of TSMC

As India becomes one of the hubs of global semiconductor design talent, Marvell is strengthening its presence in the region with this investment.

4. Price Target: What Do Analysts Say?

Criteria Value
Current Price ~$243
Average Target $269
Optimistic $400
Pessimistic $195
Annual Return +226% (last 1 year)

75% of analysts recommend "BUY". Market capitalization is $218 billion. Susquehanna maintains its "buy" recommendation with a raised target price of $265, while Rosenblatt Securities is even more optimistic with a raised target price of $300.

5. Earnings Expectations and Risks

MRVL is releasing its Q2 FY2027 earnings today (August 27). Expectations:

• Revenue: $2.72 billion (+35% year-over-year)
• Earnings Per Share: $0.93
• Data Center Growth: Expected to reach 55%

Key Risks:

Premium Valuation: The stock is priced at almost three times the sector's P/S multiple (14.40x). These levels indicate that future growth expectations are already priced in.

Customer Concentration: A large portion of revenue is tied to several hyperscalers. Significant revenue declines could occur in the event of customer loss.

Competition: Broadcom, AMD, and Astera Labs are challenging Marvell in every area. Broadcom's mature ecosystem is a significant advantage, especially in the ASIC market.

Margin Pressure: Custom silicon ramp-ups may temporarily put pressure on margins.

MRVL will show today whether it can meet these high expectations with its earnings report. Data center growth is expected to reach 55%. If these figures are achieved, the premium pricing will be justified. If not, there is a risk of a sharp correction in the stock, which has a 54x EV/EBITDA multiple.

NVIDIA CEO's "trillion-dollar company" description shows confidence in Marvell's long-term potential. However, in the short term, how much of this potential is priced in and whether the company's operational performance meets expectations will be decisive.

All assessments and comments here are purely personal and are absolutely not investment advice.