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#Gate股票观点挑战 +$MRVL MRVL Earnings Preview
Earnings will be released after market close tonight. Three key points:
1. Likely to meet expectations, but a "routine beat" will not be enough
Consensus expectations: revenue of $2.71 billion (+35%) and EPS of $0.93 (+39%), almost exactly in line with the midpoint of the company's guidance, so meeting them is not in doubt.
The real test: whether Q3 guidance can exceed $3 billion and whether the full-year outlook will be raised. Options imply ±10% volatility.
2. Most of the Google tailwind is already priced in
The substance of the partnership: providing supporting chips for TPUs (inference, storage, networking, and memory controllers), not the core TPU.
- $120 billion is the theoretical maximum revenue from warrant unlocking, not an order; it will contribute almost nothing to Q2 earnings (the agreement was only signed at the end of the quarter).
The stock jumped ~16% on August 19-20; its current P/E is ~85x and P/S is ~25x, up 189% YTD, so its valuation is not cheap.
3. AI chip rally: fundamentals remain strong, entering a differentiation phase
NVDA's earnings blew past expectations last night (revenue +106%), and the stock rose 7% today, supporting sector sentiment.
However, the sector just experienced a 20%+ pullback in July, short-selling pressure is building, and high interest rates are suppressing forward valuations. A broad-based rally is unlikely to recur: stocks delivering results will remain strong, while story-only names will pull back.
Conclusion: Three-high conditions (high expectations/high valuation/high volatility). Google is a long-term option, not a short-term earnings driver. Tonight, the stock needs Q3 guidance of ≥$3 billion plus an upgraded full-year outlook to continue moving higher; otherwise, the risk of "buy the expectations, sell the fact" is high.$MRVL
Earnings will be released after market close tonight. Three key points:
1. Likely to meet expectations, but a "routine beat" will not be enough
Consensus expectations: revenue of $2.71 billion (+35%) and EPS of $0.93 (+39%), almost exactly in line with the midpoint of the company's guidance, so meeting them is not in doubt.
The real test: whether Q3 guidance can exceed $3 billion and whether the full-year outlook will be raised. Options imply ±10% volatility.
2. Most of the Google tailwind is already priced in
The substance of the partnership: providing supporting chips for TPUs (inference, storage, networking, and memory controllers), not the core TPU.
- $120 billion is the theoretical maximum revenue from warrant unlocking, not an order; it will contribute almost nothing to Q2 earnings (the agreement was only signed at the end of the quarter).
The stock jumped ~16% on August 19-20; its current P/E is ~85x and P/S is ~25x, up 189% YTD, so its valuation is not cheap.
3. AI chip rally: fundamentals remain strong, entering a differentiation phase
NVDA's earnings blew past expectations last night (revenue +106%), and the stock rose 7% today, supporting sector sentiment.
However, the sector just experienced a 20%+ pullback in July, short-selling pressure is building, and high interest rates are suppressing forward valuations. A broad-based rally is unlikely to recur: stocks delivering results will remain strong, while story-only names will pull back.
Conclusion: Three-high conditions (high expectations/high valuation/high volatility). Google is a long-term option, not a short-term earnings driver. Tonight, the stock needs Q3 guidance of ≥$3 billion plus an upgraded full-year outlook to continue moving higher; otherwise, the risk of "buy the expectations, sell the fact" is high.$MRVL