#Gate股票观点挑战 +$SPCX at $132.59: Can AI Growth Overpower the Unlock Pressure?

SPCX is back below its $135 IPO price, with the stock currently trading around $132.59. That puts the market at an important crossroads: the recent unlock has increased available supply, but the company’s underlying growth story remains unusually strong. The real question is no longer simply whether SPCX can return to $150. It is whether accelerating AI and Starlink demand can absorb the additional shares entering the market and rebuild momentum above the IPO level.

The latest Q2 numbers provide a strong fundamental argument. Revenue reached approximately $7.8 billion, up 92% year over year, while adjusted EBITDA jumped 191% to $3.5 billion. Connectivity revenue contributed about $4.3 billion, while AI revenue reached roughly $2.6 billion, up 247% YoY. Starlink subscribers also doubled to approximately 12 million, showing that the business is expanding across both connectivity and AI rather than depending on a single growth engine.

The AI number is particularly important. A 247% increase in AI revenue suggests that investors are not only valuing SPCX as a satellite and launch company anymore. AI infrastructure is becoming a major part of the valuation story, with significant spending going toward computing capacity and future AI expansion. That creates a powerful long-term opportunity, but it also explains one of the biggest risks: AI infrastructure requires enormous capital investment. Q2 capital expenditure reached approximately $18.4 billion, with AI infrastructure accounting for a substantial portion of that spending.

Then comes the supply problem.

Approximately 319 million additional shares became eligible for trading on August 20, following an even larger release of roughly 911.5 million shares earlier in August. Importantly, unlocked does not mean automatically sold, but the additional tradable supply can still create pressure when investors decide to take profits. The market already demonstrated this effect when SPCX briefly fell below the $135 IPO price after the 319 million-share tranche became available.

That makes $135 the most important immediate level.

At $132.59, SPCX is about 1.8% below its IPO price. If buyers reclaim $135 and hold it as support, that would be the first sign that the market is successfully absorbing the unlock-related supply. A move through $140 would strengthen the recovery structure, while $145–$150 becomes the next major resistance zone. Reclaiming $150 from the current price would require roughly 13% upside, so the stock needs more than a small rebound to reach that target.

On the downside, the first area I would monitor is $130–$132. Losing this region with heavy volume would suggest that supply is still dominating demand. Below that, the previous $120–$125 area becomes relevant, while the broader historical reference around $105–$110 represents a much deeper downside zone.

The bullish scenario is straightforward: SPCX holds above the low-$130s, reclaims $135, then establishes higher lows while trading volume remains strong. In that case, the market could gradually shift its focus from unlock pressure back toward the company’s AI growth, Starlink expansion and long-term infrastructure opportunity. A successful break above $145–$150 would provide much stronger confirmation that buyers have regained control.

The bearish scenario is equally clear: repeated rejection below $135, increasing selling volume and continued weakness in the broader growth-stock market could keep SPCX trapped below its IPO price. The fundamental story would still exist, but investors could remain concerned about capital expenditure, profitability and the supply of newly tradable shares.

There is one encouraging historical signal: the much larger early-August unlock did not automatically produce a sustained collapse. After approximately 912 million shares became eligible, SPCX actually recovered strongly, showing that unlocked shares only become meaningful downside pressure when actual selling overwhelms available demand.

My current view is cautiously bullish above $130, but confirmation is still needed.

At $132.59, I would watch the structure in this order: $130–$132 support → $135 IPO reclaim → $140 confirmation → $145–$150 resistance. A sustained move above $150 would completely change the short-term momentum picture. Until then, the market is still deciding whether SPCX is building a recovery base or simply experiencing another temporary bounce after the unlock.

The fundamental equation remains fascinating:

319M unlocked shares = additional supply.
AI revenue +247% = accelerating demand.
$7.8B quarterly revenue = powerful top-line growth.
12M Starlink subscribers = expanding recurring connectivity business.
$18.4B capex = enormous future investment, but also a major near-term risk.

So the $150 question is not really about a number.

It is a test of whether SPCX’s business growth can overpower the supply shock created by the unlock.

At $132.59, that battle is still being decided.
#SpaceX #Starlink @Gate_Square