#GateStockInsightsChallenge +#SPCX

Can SPCX Rebound After the Unlock and Return to $150?

The big question for SpaceX stock is whether SPCX can reclaim the psychological $150 level after surviving the recent lockup unlocks, or whether the current rebound is simply a temporary relief rally before another decline. The setup is unusually balanced because technical momentum, valuation, and future share supply are sending mixed signals.

SPCX listed on Nasdaq on June 12, 2026 at an IPO price of $135. It surged to an all-time high of $225.64 on June 16, gaining more than 67% in only four trading days. The rally then reversed sharply, with the stock falling to $104.83 on August 3, representing a peak-to-trough decline of roughly 53.5%. By the August 25 close, SPCX had recovered to $137.95, up 31.6% from the August low and only slightly above its IPO price. However, it remains about 38.8% below its record high.

The biggest catalyst has been the staggered lockup schedule. On August 6, around 911 million shares worth approximately $100 billion became eligible to trade, more than doubling the tradable float. Many traders expected heavy insider selling and a major collapse, but the opposite happened: SPCX gained more than 6% on the unlock day and nearly 16% in the following session. A second tranche of around 319 million shares unlocked on August 20 and again failed to trigger the feared collapse, although the stock fell roughly 2.6% that day.

However, the supply problem is not finished.

Around 700 million additional shares are expected to unlock in September, with a similar amount in October. Ultimately, approximately 88% of SpaceX's roughly 13 billion shares are expected to become eligible through 2027.

September could therefore bring a potential $116 billion unlock event. This means the market has successfully absorbed two unlocks, but the larger future tranches still represent a significant risk.

Volume is another important warning sign. SPCX traded roughly 53 million shares on August 25 compared with an average daily volume of about 118 million. That means recent trading activity is running at less than half the average.

A rally toward $150 on declining volume is less convincing than a breakout supported by strong institutional participation. For a sustainable move above $150, I would want to see volume expand significantly, ideally above the 118 million-share average.

The stock's volatility also makes the setup particularly interesting. With a beta near 6.5, SPCX can move dramatically more than the broader market. This creates opportunities for traders but also makes risk management extremely important. A single major headline can potentially produce a double-digit percentage move in either direction.

Short interest was another major source of the recent rebound. Short interest reportedly reached around 34% of the public float, representing approximately 206–208 million shares, before the first unlock. By mid-August, it had fallen toward 11% as the float expanded and short sellers covered positions. This covering created additional buying pressure and helped accelerate the rebound. However, much of that fuel has now disappeared. Future gains therefore need to come increasingly from genuine new buyers rather than forced short covering.

Analyst sentiment remains broadly bullish, although the enormous range of price targets highlights the uncertainty surrounding SPCX.

Around 33 analysts are reported to cover the stock, with the majority maintaining Buy or Strong Buy ratings. Average targets are roughly $216–$232, while the most aggressive target reaches $450. Morgan Stanley has maintained a $300 target, with a bull case around $600 based heavily on the potential AI opportunity.

JPMorgan recently reiterated an Overweight rating with a $240 target, while Bernstein has a $248 target.
On the bearish side, Phillip Securities has a $75 target, DZ Bank has a $100 sell rating, and Morningstar's fair-value estimate is around $62.

The enormous difference between $62 and $450 demonstrates how divided the market is about SpaceX's future valuation.

The fundamental debate is straightforward. Bears argue that SPCX's approximately $1.8 trillion market capitalization is extremely aggressive relative to projected 2026 revenue of around $18.7 billion. The company is also expected to remain unprofitable in 2026, with forecasts pointing toward a loss before a potential return to profitability in 2027. From this perspective, the stock already prices in extraordinary future growth.

Bulls are looking beyond today's earnings. They believe the market is undervaluing SpaceX's AI ambitions, Starlink expansion, launch dominance, Grok-related opportunities, and orbital data-centre plans. The reported partnership with Nvidia and the acceleration of AI-powered orbital data-centre launches toward late 2027 have strengthened the long-term bull narrative. Institutional interest also provides support, with Harvard and the University of California reportedly holding substantial positions, while ARK Invest has also been buying.

So, can SPCX return to $150?

At $137.95, the stock needs only about an 8.7% gain to reach $150. Given its extreme volatility, that move is absolutely achievable, potentially within a single strong session. SPCX has already traded into the $146–$148 area during previous recovery attempts, showing that the $150 zone is within reach.

The problem is that $150 is not just another price level. It is a significant psychological and technical resistance zone. Previous attempts toward the high $140s have failed, and the current rebound is losing some momentum because volume remains weak. A temporary move above $150 would therefore not automatically mean a confirmed breakout.

My view is that the post-unlock rebound is genuine and stronger than many traders expected. The fact that SPCX survived two major unlock events without collapsing is an encouraging sign that insider selling may be more controlled than feared. However, the September and October unlocks remain unresolved, and the current rally lacks the volume confirmation needed for a powerful sustained breakout.

The most likely near-term scenario, in my view, is continued volatility and consolidation between roughly the low $130s and the $150–$152 resistance area. A clean breakout above $152 could open the door toward $160 and potentially higher. On the other hand, rejection around $150 could send SPCX back toward $135, with deeper support potentially appearing in the low $130s.

For a stronger bullish setup, I would watch three things closely: first, whether upside volume expands above the roughly 118 million-share average; second, whether SPCX successfully survives the September unlock while remaining above the $135 IPO price; and third, whether SpaceX produces tangible progress on AI, Starlink, and orbital data-centre monetisation rather than relying solely on announcements.

Short-term traders willing to accept extreme volatility could consider strength above $140, targeting $150–$152 and then potentially $160, while maintaining strict risk controls. Long-term investors may prefer waiting for the September unlock to pass cleanly or for clearer evidence that the AI and orbital data-centre opportunity can translate into meaningful revenue.

In conclusion, SPCX's rebound is real, and the market appears to have been too pessimistic about the immediate impact of the unlocks. A return to $150 is certainly possible from $137.95, but reclaiming $150 convincingly will require stronger volume and continued fundamental catalysts. The September and October unlocks remain the biggest obstacles.

SPCX is therefore an attractive but extremely high-risk setup. The bullish case has enormous potential, but the valuation and share-supply risks cannot be ignored. For now, $150–$152 is the key battlefield: a rejection could bring another pullback, while a high-volume breakout could signal the beginning of a much larger recovery toward $160 and beyond.