#Gate股票观点挑战

#Gate股票观点挑战
$SPCX ‌

SPCX IS FACING ITS MOST IMPORTANT TEST SINCE THE UNLOCK — AND $150 COULD BECOME THE KEY LEVEL.

The recent share unlock created exactly what the market feared: a significant increase in potential supply. Around 319 million shares became eligible for sale on August 20, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already highly volatile stock.

But here is where the story gets interesting.

SPCX did not simply collapse after the unlock. Instead, the stock has shown signs of stabilization and recovery after the initial pressure. That reaction matters because it suggests buyers are still willing to absorb additional supply.

The real question now is whether this is merely a technical rebound or the beginning of another larger upside move.

I think the answer depends heavily on how SPCX behaves around the $135–$150 zone.

The $135 area is particularly important because it represents the IPO price. Holding above this level would show that the market is willing to defend the post-IPO valuation despite the increase in tradable shares. SPCX has already demonstrated the ability to recover above its IPO price after earlier unlock pressure.

But $150 is the bigger psychological battle.

A clean breakout above $150, followed by sustained trading rather than a quick rejection, would significantly strengthen the recovery thesis.

In that scenario, the market could begin looking toward higher levels as momentum returns.

On the other hand, failure to reclaim $150 and another rejection could mean the recent strength is simply a relief bounce following heavy selling pressure.

That creates two very different scenarios.

BULLISH SCENARIO

SPCX holds above $135 → reclaims $150 → confirms $150 as support → momentum strengthens.

That would suggest buyers are absorbing unlock-related supply and that demand remains strong enough to support another rally.

BEARISH SCENARIO

SPCX repeatedly fails near $150 → loses $135 → selling pressure accelerates.

That would indicate that the additional supply is still overwhelming demand and that the market needs more time to establish a stable base.

There is also a bigger fundamental factor that cannot be ignored.

SpaceX remains one of the most ambitious companies in the market, with Starlink growth, launch infrastructure and long-term space ambitions supporting the broader investment narrative.

But strong fundamentals do not eliminate valuation risk.

SPCX has already experienced extreme volatility, and unlock events can create sharp price swings even when the underlying business story remains unchanged.

That is why I would not chase a sudden green candle.

For me, the strongest setup would be confirmation, not anticipation.

A sustained move above $150 would be far more meaningful than a temporary spike through the level.

My current view is cautiously bullish above $135, increasingly bullish above $150, and defensive below $135.

The market has already shown that unlocks can create violent volatility.

Now SPCX needs to prove something different:

Can demand absorb the new supply?

If the answer is yes, $150 may become a launchpad rather than a ceiling.

If the answer is no, patience could be more valuable than FOMO.

This is not a guaranteed price target or investment recommendation. It is a scenario-based market view built around supply, demand, price structure and confirmation.

The next move matters.

But the reaction around $135 and $150 matters even more.
@Gate_Square