$SPCX Recovery After the Unlock: Can It Return to $150 or Get Stuck at Resistance?

After being hit by selling pressure due to the post-IPO share unlock, SpaceX ($SPCX) stock has begun showing signs of recovery.
The question now is no longer whether the unlock will destroy the price.
The market is instead beginning to ask:
Can SPCX return to $150 and turn supply pressure into the start of a new rally?
The answer may be yes, but the journey toward $150 will not be easy.
The Massive Unlock Turns Out Not to Have Destroyed SPCX
SpaceX held its IPO in June 2026 at $135 per share. The stock then experienced extreme volatility after entering the market.
On August 6, approximately 911.5 million shares became eligible for trading after the first lock-up period ended. Interestingly, instead of immediately collapsing, SPCX actually gained around 6% that day.
This phenomenon is important.
Because the unlock did not actually create new shares.
The shares released were simply existing shares that had previously been prohibited from trading. Therefore, there was no dilution as occurs with the issuance of new shares. What changed was the number of shares available for trading.
And the market has begun to show that fears of a wave of selling may previously have been overstated.
The Second Wave Remains a Test
On August 20, approximately 319 million additional shares became eligible for trading.
That amount was large enough to create new pressure on the price. On that day, SPCX briefly fell around 4% and traded in the $130 range.
But this is precisely where the story becomes interesting.
After the second unlock pressure, the stock began attempting to stabilize.
This means the market is testing one question:
Has the supply from existing shareholders been sufficiently absorbed by new buyers?
If the answer is yes, pressure from subsequent unlocks may decrease further.
$150 Is a Very Important Number
$150 is not merely a round number.
It is an area that previously attracted traders’ attention because it was near the IPO opening price and an important resistance zone. SpotGamma specifically highlighted $150 as the key resistance level after the unlock.
SPCX even briefly approached that level in mid-August.
On August 12, the stock surged after Elon Musk gave a positive outlook on the potential revenue of SpaceX’s AI business, with the price briefly approaching $148.79.
This means the market has already tried to break through $150.
But it has not yet managed to hold above it.
What Is Needed for $150 to Return?
There are three main factors.
1. Supply from the Unlock Must Be Absorbed
This is the most important factor in the short term.
If existing shareholders sell and new buyers are able to absorb that supply without causing the price to continue falling, the overhang pressure will ease.
The first wave provided an interesting signal: 911.5 million shares were unlocked, but the price actually rose afterward.
That indicates market demand was not as weak as feared.
2. Starlink and AI Must Continue to Be Growth Engines
SpaceX is not merely a rocket company.
SPCX’s investment value is becoming increasingly tied to Starlink, AI, data infrastructure, and next-generation space technology.
Musk’s statement regarding the potential for SpaceX’s AI revenue to surpass its Starlink and rocket-launch businesses also served as a catalyst that pushed the stock close to $150 in August.
If that narrative continues developing into real revenue growth, investors may once again assign SPCX a higher premium.
3. $150 Must Change from Resistance into Support
This is the most important confirmation.
Touching $150 is not enough.
SPCX must be able to:
break through $150 → hold above it → form a higher low → continue rising.
If that pattern occurs, $150 could change from a wall of sellers into a new foundation for a rally.
But Don’t Forget: Its Valuation Is Already Very High
There is a reason SPCX stock is so volatile.
The market is assigning SpaceX a highly aggressive valuation. On August 24, several analyses placed the stock at around 93 times projected 2027 earnings.
This means investors are not buying a company with ordinary growth expectations.
They are buying SpaceX’s future.
Starlink must continue growing.
Launches must become increasingly efficient.
Starship must successfully reach a higher level of commercial operation.
And the AI vision must turn into a real business.
The higher the valuation, the less room the company has to disappoint the market.
A Major Catalyst Is Beginning to Emerge
Interestingly, on August 26 SpaceX also announced plans to invest approximately $100 billion to build a Starbase facility in Louisiana, designed to expand Starship’s launch capabilities. The project is targeted to begin construction in 2027, with the first launch around 2029.
For long-term investors, this shows that SpaceX remains aggressive in building capacity for its next growth phase.
But from the stock market’s perspective, such a large investment also means an extremely significant capital requirement.
Therefore, investors must balance two things:
future growth vs. investment needs.
Can SPCX Return to $150?
Technically and in terms of sentiment, that possibility remains open.
In fact, the market has already shown that SPCX can approach that level after the first unlock.
However, $150 will likely be the main battleground.
If the price rises back toward $150 but fails to break through it, the stock may re-enter a consolidation phase.
Conversely, if SPCX can break through $150 on strong volume and hold above it, the market narrative could change:
“unlock pressure” → “supply has been absorbed” → “new bullish leg”.
That would be a much stronger signal than merely rising for one or two days.
Levels Investors Need to Watch
Simply put, SPCX’s current structure can be read as follows:
$150: major psychological and technical resistance.
$135: psychologically important IPO price area.
$130 range: the zone that became the trading area after pressure from the second unlock.
$108: important low formed before the first unlock.
As long as the price structure can form a higher low and move back toward $150, bullish momentum still has room to develop.
However, if the price loses the $130 area again and selling pressure increases, the short-term recovery thesis must be reconsidered.
Conclusion
$SPCX ’s unlock story is not over yet.
However, the market has already provided one important lesson:
A major unlock does not always mean the price must fall.
On August 6, approximately 911.5 million shares became eligible for trading, and SPCX actually managed to gain. Then, on August 20, approximately 319 million shares re-entered the market and the stock did face pressure, but it did not result in a permanent collapse.
Attention is now returning to $150.
If SpaceX can break through and hold that level, the market may begin to see that the unlock overhang phase could be coming to an end.
But if $150 once again becomes a strong wall, SPCX will likely need a new fundamental catalyst to continue its rally.
So, the real question is not simply:
“Can SPCX return to $150?”
Rather:
“When SPCX reaches $150, will buyers be strong enough to make it hold there?”
Because if the answer is yes, $150 will no longer merely be a target.
It could become the starting point of SpaceX’s next bullish chapter.
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