#NVIDIAEarnings

NVIDIA Earnings: $30 Billion Quarter Meets Blackwell Delay And Market Wants More

NVIDIA just printed $30.04 billion revenue, up 122% year over year, with $16.6 billion profit and 75.1% gross margin. Data center did $26.3 billion, up 154%, gaming did $2.9 billion, up 16%, and networking did $3.7 billion. EPS was $0.68 vs $0.64 view. Yet stock fell 3% after hours because Q3 guide of $32.5 billion was only 2.5% above Street.

This is new regime for chip leader. Beat is not enough. Guide must show Blackwell ramp with no slip.

Where Beat Came From

Hopper still sells out. H100 and H200 volume near 900k units, with H200 now 35% of mix vs 18% last quarter. Average price for H200 stays near $34k to $36k. Lead time 10 to 14 weeks.

HBM3E cost is key. Each H200 needs 144GB HBM3E. SK Hynix and Micron supply near 1.1 million stacks per quarter, with NVIDIA taking 62%. Cost per stack rose 18% quarter over quarter, which cut gross margin 30 bps vs Q1.

Sovereign AI was bright spot. Japan, France, and Gulf buyers added $1.9 billion, up 375% year over year. These deals include full cluster plus AI Enterprise license at $4,500 per GPU per year, which lifts margin.

China drag remains. Due to export curb, China sales fell to $1.1 billion from $2.8 billion a year ago, now only 3.7% of revenue. H20 cut-down chip sold 280k units at $12k each.

Why Guide Was Soft

Blackwell is built but not yet shipped in volume. Inventory rose $1.2 billion to $5.4 billion, all tied to B100 and B200 board plus Grace CPU. Volume ship now set for late October, not early September. That 6-week shift moves $2 to $3 billion of revenue from Q3 into Q4. R&D rose 33% to $3.9 billion on Rubin tape-out.

Margin guide also soft. Q3 gross margin guide at 74.4% vs 75.1% this quarter, on higher HBM3E cost and mix shift to Spectrum-X Ethernet from InfiniBand. Ethernet is lower margin.

Buyer concentration adds risk. Four US cloud firms drive 46% of revenue. Their capex growth slows from 52% this quarter to 28% guided next quarter. If one pauses, NVIDIA feels it same week.

Valuation And Macro Frame

At $120 billion annual run rate, NVIDIA trades at 31x forward. Bulls see $38 to $40 billion in Q4 if Blackwell ships in October with yield above 85%. That path supports $3.2 trillion cap.

Bears see peak Hopper and cost creep. H100 price easing 5% quarter over quarter, HBM3E cost up, and networking mix shift could cap margin.

Macro helps bull case. BTC above $81k, ETH above $2,500, gold above $2,650, and 10-year yield near 4.70% while US federal debt tops $40 trillion keeps bid for scarce compute. Treasury buyback at $4 billion per week eases funding, repo near 5.31%, and risk bid for long duration stays.

Key watch for next 8 weeks: Blackwell ship date, HBM3E price, and cloud capex guide. Hold those three and $30 billion quarter will look like base, not peak. Slip one and multiple compress.