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Gold is trading around $4,612, and this is a very important technical zone because price is sitting close to the $4,600 psychological level after a powerful August rally. The bigger trend remains bullish, but the short-term chart is entering a decision area where buyers need to prove that they can reclaim $4,670–$4,700. Gold recently reached around $4,696, its highest level in more than three months, before pulling back. Reuters reported that gold was around $4,618 on August 26 after easing 0.8%, while traders were waiting for U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve guidance.

MY VIEW:

I am still bullish on gold from a 7-day perspective, but I would not chase aggressively at $4,612. The market has already moved strongly, and a controlled pullback or sideways consolidation could be healthier than another vertical move. The important point is that the bullish structure remains intact while gold holds the $4,550–$4,580 region. Technical analysis currently shows a bullish 4-hour structure with higher highs and higher lows, while $4,670–$4,700 remains the major breakout barrier.

1-DAY CHART:

The immediate battle is between $4,605–$4,625 support and $4,660–$4,700 resistance. If gold holds $4,600 and starts reclaiming $4,640, buyers can attempt $4,670. A clean break above $4,700 would be the strongest short-term bullish signal and could open $4,750–$4,800. On the other hand, a sustained break below $4,600 would increase the probability of $4,555 and then $4,495. Another current forecast identifies $4,615 as support and $4,665 as the initial breakout level, with $4,720 as an upside target.

7-DAY CHART PATTERN:

The bigger picture looks like a strong recovery followed by consolidation beneath the recent high. Gold has recovered sharply from the $3,900 area and is now trading in the mid-$4,600s. Weekly RSI is around 60, so the weekly chart is strong without being as stretched as some shorter timeframes. The weekly structure therefore leaves room for another upside leg if buyers break the $4,700 region. A weekly move toward $4,800 would be a realistic first extension, while $4,900–$5,000 becomes possible if momentum remains strong.

KEY SUPPORT LEVELS:

$4,600 is the first psychological support. Below it, watch $4,575–$4,555. The next major support is $4,495, followed by $4,435. A deeper structural support zone is around $4,410–$4,519, with the 200-day moving average reported near $4,519. As long as gold stays above these broader support areas, I would treat weakness as a correction rather than immediately calling it a trend reversal.

KEY RESISTANCE LEVELS:

$4,640 is the first recovery level, followed by $4,670. The major resistance zone is $4,696–$4,700. Above $4,700, the next important targets are $4,750–$4,780, then $4,800. If $4,800 breaks with strong momentum, $4,900 becomes the next major psychological target, followed by $5,000. One current market analysis specifically identifies $4,771–$4,780 as the next bullish target after the recent rally.

7-DAY BULLISH FORECAST:

My base bullish path is $4,612 → $4,670 → $4,700 → $4,780 → $4,800. From the current $4,612 price, $4,700 represents approximately +1.9%, $4,800 is about +4.1%, $4,900 is about +6.2%, and $5,000 is approximately +8.4%. If gold reaches $5,000, that would be a major psychological milestone and would represent a substantial continuation of the current recovery.

MY EXTENDED BULLISH SCENARIO:

If $4,700 breaks decisively and price establishes support above it, I would look for $4,750 first, then $4,780–$4,800. A successful breakout above $4,800 could create momentum toward $4,900. If $4,900 is reclaimed and held, $5,000 becomes a realistic 7-day extension rather than simply a distant psychological number. Wells Fargo Investment Institute currently maintains a 2026 gold target range of $4,900–$5,100, although it also expects volatility because monetary policy remains an important variable.

BEARISH SCENARIO:

The bearish case becomes more important if $4,600 fails decisively. A break below $4,555 would expose $4,495, while losing $4,435 would significantly weaken the current bullish structure. The key is not one temporary dip below support; I would want to see sustained trading beneath major support before changing the broader 7-day bias from bullish to bearish. Current technical analysis also identifies $4,624, $4,495 and $4,435 as important support levels.

TRADING STRATEGY:

I prefer a confirmation-based approach rather than chasing gold at $4,612. Aggressive buyers can watch the $4,600–$4,620 region for a clear bullish reaction. A safer momentum approach is to wait for a confirmed break above $4,670–$4,700 and then watch whether the breakout holds on a retest. If $4,700 becomes support, the probability of $4,780–$4,800 increases considerably.

SL LEVELS:

SL1 = $4,575 for a tighter short-term setup. SL2 = $4,545 for a wider setup. SL3 = $4,430 for a larger swing structure. These are technical example levels, not guaranteed outcomes. Position size should be reduced when volatility is high because gold can move rapidly around major economic releases.

TP LEVELS:

TP1 = $4,670. TP2 = $4,780. TP3 = $4,900. After TP1, traders can consider protecting part of the position. Above $4,800, the next major extension is $4,900–$5,000. If $5,000 breaks with strong momentum, the upside structure could extend further, but I would wait for confirmation rather than assume it in advance.

MACRO FACTORS:

The next major driver is U.S. inflation and Federal Reserve expectations. Reuters reported that traders were waiting for the July PCE inflation report and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech. Softer inflation can support expectations for easier monetary conditions, potentially helping gold, while stronger inflation and higher-rate expectations can pressure it. Lower Treasury yields and a weaker dollar have also recently supported gold.

MARKET SENTIMENT:

Sentiment is bullish but cautious. Gold has gained strongly in August, and one recent report noted a rise of more than 14% during the month. At the same time, the recent move has produced some profit-taking and consolidation. Central-bank demand, gold ETF inflows, dollar weakness and macro uncertainty remain supportive factors, while higher yields and stronger inflation expectations are the main risks.

FINAL PLAN:

At $4,612, I would not call gold bearish. My preferred scenario is HOLD ABOVE $4,600 → reclaim $4,640 → break $4,670 → confirm above $4,700 → target $4,780–$4,800. If $4,800 breaks, $4,900 becomes the next major target, with $5,000 possible in a strong momentum scenario. The alternative is $4,600 breakdown → $4,555 → $4,495 → $4,435.

In percentage terms, the immediate upside to $4,700 is around +1.9%, $4,780 is +3.6%, $4,800 is +4.1%, $4,900 is +6.2%, and $5,000 is +8.4% from $4,612. On the downside, $4,555 is approximately -1.2%, $4,495 is -2.5%, and $4,435 is around -3.8%.

My overall 7-day bias:

BULLISH ABOVE $4,555, STRONGLY BULLISH ABOVE $4,700, and significantly weaker below $4,435. The next major decision is not whether gold can move $20 or $30; it is whether buyers can turn the $4,670–$4,700 resistance zone into support. If they do, the path toward $4,800 and potentially $4,900–$5,000 becomes much more interesting.
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