#Gate股票观点挑战 +$SPCX After SPCX experienced two unlocks on August 6 and August 20, its stock price did rebound, but whether it can return to $150 and begin a new round of gains requires a comprehensive assessment of market sentiment, subsequent unlock pressure, and the realization of its fundamentals.

I. Drivers of the Rebound
1. Bad News Priced In and Sentiment Reversal: The market had already fully absorbed the pessimistic expectations surrounding “massive AI capital expenditures” and “large-scale unlocks.” Actual selling pressure after the unlocks was lower than expected, while short covering drove the rapid short-term rebound.
2. Fundamentals Exceeding Expectations: The 2026 Q2 financial report showed that SPCX’s revenue ($7.8 billion) and AI business ($2.56 billion) grew significantly. The Starlink business remained steady, partially easing market concerns that it was “burning cash too quickly” and helping restore some market sentiment.
3. Technical and Sentiment Recovery: The stock price moved back above the $135 IPO offering price, easing some of the panic caused by trading below the offering price and attracting renewed attention from some investors.
II. Factors Constraining the Rebound
1. Continued Unlock Pressure: SPCX uses a phased unlock mechanism, with a large number of restricted shares still scheduled to be unlocked on August 20 and in subsequent months (for example, 320 million shares on August 20, with even larger unlocks in early November and December). As the stock price rebounds, early investors’ unrealized gains increase, and potential profit-taking selling will continue to constrain sustained upside.
2. Concerns Over AI Capital Expenditures: Although SPCX’s AI business (xAI) is growing rapidly, its capital expenditures are extremely high (Q2 capital expenditures reached $18.37 billion). Short-term cash flow pressure is substantial, while the market remains divided over the payback period and profitability of its AI investments, putting its high valuation to the test.
3. Market Sentiment and Valuation Dynamics: SPCX previously experienced a sharp decline after a surge, leaving market sentiment highly sensitive. In the short term, the rebound may easily be affected by news developments (such as Starship test progress) and broader market sentiment, with no clear catalyst for a sustained one-way rise.
III. Institutional Expectations and Outlook
Bullish View: Some institutions (such as Deutsche Bank and Bank of America) believe SPCX’s valuation is misaligned and that its AI business is undervalued by the market. If AI revenue continues to exceed expectations, the stock still has room to rise. Some institutions have price targets between $235 and $300, believing there is a solid basis for breaking above $150.
Bearish/Cautious View: Some institutions (such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan) point out that SPCX’s valuation is high, making it difficult to fully absorb unlock-related selling pressure in the short term. In addition, the payback period for AI investments remains uncertain. They believe the stock will face strong resistance around $150 and may remain range-bound in the short term (such as within the $130-$150 range), making it difficult to quickly form a new one-way surge.

Conclusion: SPCX’s current rebound is a “bad news priced in” and technical recovery. A return to $150 in the short term is possible, but continued sharp gains will be difficult given subsequent unlock-related selling pressure and valuation concerns. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the absorption of actual unlock-related selling pressure, the monetization capabilities of the AI business, and the performance of subsequent financial reports. In the short term, the stock will most likely remain range-bound while forming a bottom. $SPCX ‌