👉👉👉 $NVDA ‌Nvidia's unique fiscal year calendar is creating this confusion.

$NVDA #NVIDIAEarnings

NVIDIA will release its second-quarter results for fiscal year 2027 after market close today, August 26th, and this report is seen as one of the most critical catalysts of the year for both the AI sector and the overall market.

The stock is currently trading around $212.98, up 2.15% on a daily basis, having reached as high as $213.81 in pre-session trading. This is a recovery following a seven-day uninterrupted decline last week, during which the stock experienced sharp selling pressure in parallel with the 2.05% drop in the Nasdaq. With a market capitalization of $5.15 trillion, the P/E ratio is 32.6, valued at twelve months' earnings.

On the expectations side, there is a broad consensus among analysts, with the average estimate of 40 to 62 analysts for revenue to be in the range of $91.8 to $92.2 billion, representing approximately 56-67% growth compared to the same period last year. The company's own guidance is in the range of $91 billion plus or minus two percent, meaning market expectations are only about 0.9% above the company's own estimate, indicating that management's own forecast remains slightly cautious. The earnings per share estimate is around $2.08, almost double last year's figure of $1.05. The average target price among analysts is in the range of $304-305, indicating a 25-45% upside potential from the current level, with a general consensus of sixty-two analysts to be a "strong buy".

The background on the sector side is indeed strong. Large cloud companies' total capital expenditure for the second quarter reached $166 billion, an 87% increase year-over-year and a 27% increase quarter-over-quarter, bringing their total growth over the last ten quarters to 272%. Meta alone increased its capital expenditure from $19.8 billion to $31.1 billion in a single quarter, raising its annual target to the $130-145 billion range, while Amazon maintained its position as the largest spender with $54.2 billion. According to Bloomberg's report last weekend, Nvidia has informed its customers of price increases exceeding 15% on servers with Vera Rubin and Blackwell chips, applicable to servers shipping in early 2027, another signal of how much demand is exceeding supply. Chip stocks were generally higher today ahead of the report, with AMD up 4.9% and Micron up 2.5%.

There are also points that should not be ignored on the risk side. Blackwell's growth is projected to slow by 71% next year, suggesting the current cycle may be beginning to plateau. The company's guidance doesn't assume H20 shipments to China, indicating that the geographic risk side remains unresolved. A strategist at Swissquote emphasizes that "even excellent results may not guarantee a positive reaction," as expectations are already priced in quite high; even a strong earnings announcement might not halt the broad tech sales if guidance isn't upgraded.

Timing is also crucial, as the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, PCE data, will also be released on the same day, expected to rise to 3.6% for July. The market is currently pricing in a quarter-point rate hike for 2026, but the outcome of the inflation data could alter expectations for the September meeting. So today, two major catalysts are occurring simultaneously on both the micro (Nvidia's own results) and macro (inflation data) fronts.

On the short side, betting on the company remains relatively limited, with short selling only around 1% of publicly traded shares, indicating that the market is not generally betting on a downside in the stock.

For those following NVDA and related derivatives through Gate, the key point to watch is not just this quarter's figures, but also the third-quarter guidance and Blackwell/Vera Rubin demand commentary, because the market is already expecting high growth. The real determining factor will be how confident the company is that this growth can continue until 2027.

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