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$SPCX ‌After the Unlock: Can SpaceX Reclaim $150 and Start a New Rally?

$SPCX has once again become one of the most interesting high-volatility stocks in the market. After the large-scale post-IPO unlocks created significant selling pressure, the stock managed to recover strongly and return toward the important $150 area. For me, this is no longer simply an “unlock story.” The real question is whether the market has successfully absorbed the additional supply and whether buyers can turn $150 from resistance into support.

The first major unlock happened on August 6, when around 911.5 million shares became eligible for trading. A second tranche of approximately 319 million shares became eligible on August 20. Despite this enormous increase in potential supply, SPCX previously recovered strongly after the first unlock, showing that the market was capable of absorbing substantial selling pressure.

That is one of the reasons my view has become more constructive.

Current SPCX Price Structure

SPCX recently traded around the $134 area after the latest unlock pressure, while the stock has repeatedly tested the $150 zone. Reports have specifically identified $150 as an important resistance level, with options positioning also potentially creating additional pressure around this area.

For me, the chart can be divided into several important zones:

$130–$135: immediate support and major psychological zone

$140–$145: recovery zone

$150: key resistance

$155–$160: breakout confirmation zone

$170–$175: next major upside area

$200: psychological target

$225+: previous major high zone

The most important level right now is $150.

If SPCX repeatedly fails there, I expect more consolidation.

If buyers break $150 with strong volume and hold it as support, I believe the probability of another major upward move increases significantly.

Can SPCX Return to $150?

My answer is yes, but confirmation is important.

The stock has already demonstrated that unlock-related supply does not automatically mean a permanent decline. After the first major unlock, SPCX recovered strongly and moved back above its $135 IPO price. Reports showed the stock gaining roughly 31% between the first unlock and its later high near $149.80.

That tells me buyers are still interested.

The market has now seen two important unlock events, so I am watching whether selling pressure continues to weaken.

If SPCX can hold above $135–$140, I would consider the structure much healthier.

A move back toward $150 would then become my first major test.

My Bullish Scenario

My preferred bullish setup is:

$135 support holds

→ $145 reclaim

→ $150 breakout

→ $160

→ $170–$175

→ $200

→ $225+

The first confirmation would be a clean move above $150.

But I would be even more interested if SPCX breaks $150 and then retests the level successfully.

That would transform $150 from resistance into support.

For me, that would be a much stronger signal than simply touching $150 once.

My Target Plan

If the bullish structure develops, my targets are:

TP1: $150

TP2: $160

TP3: $175

TP4: $200

Extended target: $225

I would consider taking partial profits around major resistance instead of waiting for one perfect top.

For example, if SPCX reaches $160 quickly, I would secure part of the position.

If momentum remains strong above $175, I would keep a smaller position for the $200 area.

If the stock eventually approaches $225, I would become much more focused on protecting profits.

My Bearish Scenario

I also have a clear downside plan.

If SPCX loses $135, I would become cautious.

The next levels I would monitor are:

$130

$125

$120

If selling pressure becomes extreme and the stock loses $120, I would wait for a new base rather than trying to catch the falling knife.

My bearish structure is:

$135 breakdown → $130 → $125 → $120

This does not mean I expect SPCX to fall to $120. These are simply the levels I would use to manage risk.

Why the Unlock Is Important

The unlock is one of the biggest factors behind the current volatility.

The August 6 release made approximately 911.5 million shares eligible for trading, while another approximately 319 million shares became eligible on August 20.

This does not mean every unlocked shareholder immediately sells.

That distinction is extremely important.

An unlocked share is simply eligible to trade. The actual market impact depends on how many holders decide to sell and whether buyers can absorb that supply.

This is why I am watching volume and price reaction rather than simply looking at the number of unlocked shares.

If huge supply becomes available but price refuses to fall, that can be a sign that buyers are absorbing the selling.

That is exactly the behavior I want to see.

My View on SpaceX’s Business Story

Beyond the chart, SpaceX has several major long-term growth themes that can influence investor sentiment around SPCX.

The company’s core business includes launch services, Starlink satellite internet and the development of Starship.

The long-term vision is much larger than traditional rocket launches.

Starlink provides recurring connectivity revenue, while future Starship launches could dramatically expand launch capacity and support larger satellite deployments.

Recent reports also highlighted plans for a major $100 billion Starbase Louisiana investment, with construction expected to begin in 2027. The project is intended to expand Starship launch capabilities and could eventually support a much higher launch cadence.

For me, these developments explain why investors continue to assign a significant premium to the SpaceX story.

My Trading Experience

One lesson I have learned from high-volatility stocks is that a strong company does not mean every price is a good entry.

SPCX has already experienced extreme movements, with its post-IPO trading range reaching from roughly $104.83 to $225.64.

That is an enormous range.

Because of this, I would avoid chasing a sudden green candle.

My preferred approach is to wait for confirmation.

If $135–$140 holds, I become interested.

If $150 breaks, I become bullish.

If $150 breaks and successfully becomes support, I become significantly more confident.

My Ideal Trading Plan

My plan would be:

$130–$135: watch for stabilization

$135–$140: potential accumulation zone if buyers defend support

$145: recovery confirmation

$150: major breakout level

Above $150: bullish continuation

$160: first profit-taking area

$170–$175: second target

$200: major psychological target

$225+: extended bullish scenario

I would keep position size controlled because SPCX can move very quickly in either direction.

I would also avoid excessive leverage and would never average down blindly during an unlock-driven selloff.

What Would Make Me More Bullish?

I would become strongly bullish if SPCX shows:

Strong volume

$150 breakout

Successful retest of $150

Higher highs and higher lows

Continued strength in SpaceX-related fundamentals

Strong overall U.S. growth-stock sentiment

The combination of these factors would tell me that the market has successfully absorbed the unlock supply.

What Would Make Me Cautious?

I would become defensive if:

$135 breaks

$130 fails

Selling volume increases sharply

The stock repeatedly rejects $150

Broader growth stocks weaken

In that situation, I would rather wait for a new support base than force a trade.

Final SPCX Prediction

My current view is cautiously bullish.

The unlock created a major supply test, but SPCX has shown the ability to recover from previous unlock pressure. The stock previously moved back above the $135 IPO price and approached $150, demonstrating that buyers remain active.

My key levels are:

Current focus: $135–$150

Support: $130–$135

Major resistance: $150

Breakout confirmation: Above $150

Target 1: $160

Target 2: $175

Target 3: $200

Extended target: $225

Risk zone: Below $130

My base case is consolidation followed by another attempt at $150.

My bullish case is:

$150 breakout → $160 → $175 → $200 → $225

My bearish case is:

$135 breakdown → $130 → $125 → $120

For me, the most important question is no longer simply “How many shares were unlocked?”

The more important question is:

How does the market react to those shares?

If billions of dollars worth of potential supply enters the market and buyers continue absorbing it, that can become a bullish signal rather than a bearish one.

That is why I am watching $150 so closely.

If SPCX breaks $150 and holds it, I believe the market could start treating the previous unlock pressure as absorbed.

My final strategy:

Do not chase below confirmation.

Watch $135–$140 for support.

Watch $150 for the breakout.

Use $160–$175 for partial profit-taking.

Keep $200–$225 as extended targets.

Protect capital below key support.

My personal view is that SPCX can return to $150, and a confirmed breakout above $150 could open the door toward $160, $175 and potentially $200. But if $135 fails, I would step aside and wait for a stronger base.

The SpaceX story remains one of the most ambitious growth stories in the market, but the stock’s extreme volatility means that timing and risk management are just as important as the fundamental narrative.

My verdict: $150 is the battlefield. Above $150, I turn bullish. Below $135, I turn defensive.

This is my original market view and trading plan, not a guarantee of future performance. Always manage position size and risk according to your own strategy.
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