#Gate股票观点挑战 +$SPCX SPCX at $138: Can the Post-Unlock Rebound Reach $150?

$SPCX has entered an important recovery phase after the recent large-scale unlock created heavy selling pressure. With the stock currently trading around $138, the market is now facing an important question: did the unlock mark the end of the selling wave, or is this only a temporary rebound before another correction? The latest price action suggests that buyers are beginning to absorb supply, but the chart still needs stronger confirmation before a move toward $150 can be considered a confirmed bullish breakout.

The recent unlock became a major supply test for SPCX. On August 20, the stock dropped to an intraday low around $130.39 and closed near $134, while trading volume surged to roughly 119 million shares. Such a combination of heavy volume and sharp price movement showed that the market was actively processing the newly available supply. The important part came afterward: instead of continuing directly lower, SPCX recovered toward the $137–$138 region. This suggests that buyers were willing to step in after the initial unlock-related selling, creating a potential transition from aggressive distribution toward supply absorption.

From a technical perspective, the $136–$137 region is now an important short-term support zone. As long as SPCX can hold this area during pullbacks, the current recovery structure remains relatively constructive. Below it, $133–$134 becomes the next important support because it is closely connected with the post-unlock stabilization. The deeper $130–$131 area remains a major downside reference because buyers previously appeared around this zone after the sharp sell-off. On the upside, $140 is the first resistance that needs to be reclaimed, followed by approximately $145, while $149–$150 remains the most important resistance zone.

Momentum indicators are also becoming more constructive. Current technical readings place RSI around the mid-50s, which is close to neutral rather than an overbought condition. This means SPCX still has room to build momentum if buying pressure continues. MACD conditions have also improved, while shorter-term moving averages are beginning to support the recovery. However, these indicators should not be treated as standalone buy signals. For a stock that has just experienced a major unlock, price action combined with volume is much more important. A rising price accompanied by expanding volume would provide stronger evidence that genuine demand is absorbing the additional supply.

The $150 level deserves special attention because it is more than just a psychological round number. SPCX has already approached this region multiple times during August, including an intraday high close to $149.80. That makes $149–$150 a proven supply area. If the stock reaches this zone and sellers appear again, the rebound could stall and return toward the lower support levels. On the other hand, a decisive move above $150 with strong volume and follow-through would represent a much stronger technical signal. If $150 can subsequently turn into support, the next areas traders could watch would be approximately $155–$160.

The bullish setup can therefore be viewed in stages. First, SPCX needs to defend $136–$137. Second, buyers need to reclaim $140–$145 while trading activity improves. Finally, the major confirmation would come from a breakout above $149–$150 with meaningful volume. A quick spike above $150 followed by an immediate rejection would not have the same significance as a sustained breakout where buyers continue defending the level. For me, the quality of the breakout matters more than simply touching the price.

The main risk is another wave of selling following the unlock. If SPCX loses $136–$137, short-term momentum would begin to weaken. A decisive breakdown below $133–$134 would make the current recovery structure considerably less convincing, while a failure of $130–$131 under heavy selling volume could signal another downside leg. This is why I would currently describe the chart as a recovery attempt rather than a fully confirmed new uptrend.

The broader SpaceX growth narrative can still provide fundamental support to investor sentiment. Starlink expansion, launch activity and increasing exposure to AI-related infrastructure remain important parts of the longer-term story. However, strong fundamentals do not automatically guarantee that SPCX will return to $150. The market still needs to demonstrate that buyers are capable of absorbing the additional shares created by the unlock. In simple terms, fundamentals can create the reason for investors to remain interested, while price and volume show whether that interest is actually translating into demand.

At around $138, my current view is cautiously bullish but confirmation-focused. If $136–$137 continues to hold and SPCX breaks above $140, momentum could strengthen toward $145. A sustained move through $145 would put $149–$150 directly into focus. If the stock then breaks and holds above $150 with strong volume, $155–$160 could become the next technical area to monitor. Conversely, losing $136 would weaken the setup, breaking $133–$134 would increase downside risk, and losing $130–$131 would significantly damage the current recovery structure.

The most important question is therefore not simply whether SPCX can reach $150. The real question is whether buyers can continue absorbing the post-unlock supply while maintaining higher lows and increasing volume. If that happens, the rebound could develop into a much stronger recovery. If volume fades and resistance repeatedly rejects price, the move may remain only a temporary bounce.

At $138, SPCX is approaching a major decision zone. $140 is the first momentum test, $145 is the next hurdle, and $149–$150 is the real breakout level. The unlock created the supply shock; now the market has to prove that demand is strong enough to absorb it.#SPCX
#Gate股票观点挑战