#BTC #Btc$BTC

Bitcoin is currently trading right around the $78,780 level you mentioned, though my live data shows the current price in the range of roughly $78,523 to $78,651. Over the last 24 hours, BTC has seen a decline of -1.42%, so today's candle is slightly red in the short term. However, if you look at the 7-day frame, the picture is very bullish — the weekly change is +21.3%, meaning BTC has jumped from roughly $64,900 a week ago to the current $78,500+ area. This has been a record-type move because the weekly gain of over $16,000 is the best weekly performance since 2023.

Now, regarding the $81,650 high you mentioned — that level is real, as my data confirms a recent high of approximately $81,269 (and some exchanges likely printed around $81,650). The pullback from this high to the current price is approximately -3.06%, which technically is a normal and healthy correction, because after such a rapid rally, moving higher without any pullback is difficult. This pullback is cooling down the short-term overbought condition that had built up during the rally.

Now let's talk about the technical indicators. Without any doubt, the daily time frame (1D) is still bullish. The daily RSI is in the range of approximately 79.98 to 80, which technically falls in the "overbought" zone — this means the price has moved up substantially and taking a small breather is normal. However, being overbought does not necessarily mean an immediate crash; in fact, during strong bull runs the RSI can stay overbought for extended periods. The daily MACD is very positive — the MACD value is +1,554.87 and the MACD difference is +3,708.95, which is a clear bullish signal. The daily ADX is at 39.75, which indicates a strong trend. On the 4-hour frame, the ADX is even higher at 50.28, which is an even stronger trend signal.

Looking at moving averages, the price structure is very bullish. The daily MA7 sits at $76,144, the MA30 at $66,765, and the MA200 at $69,161. In other words, price is trading well above all its short, medium, and long-term moving averages, which is a classic bullish alignment. Particularly important is that the MA200 (which signals the broader investment trend) is more than $9,000 below the current price — this means the long-term trend is solid, and the 69k area should now act as support.

Now understand the resistance and support levels. The first and immediate resistance is $79,295, which is the hourly Bollinger middle band, followed by the important psychological level of $80,000. After that comes $80,611, the hourly upper Bollinger band, then the recent high zone of $81,269 to $81,650. If BTC successfully breaks above all of these to the upside, the next targets would be $82,000, then $87,000, and then the major $90,000 level on the longer timeframe. News reports are also indicating that if BTC sustains above $80,000 to $82,000, the space to $82,000–$87,000 could open up.

On the support side, the most immediate support is $77,865, which is the recent low of this pullback, then the $77,765 area near the daily MA7 around 78k. Below that is the $77,494 level, the 4-hour SAR (stop-and-reverse) indicator support. A stronger support sits at $76,144, the daily MA7 — if price pulls back to that level, it would be a -3.35% drop. Below that, $75,000 is a psychological support, and $73,472 is the daily MA200, which is a -6.74% distance away — that is a major long-term support.

Now regarding market sentiment, and this is very interesting. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is currently in "Extreme Greed" territory, with a value between 81 and 83 — it has jumped 45 points in the last 30 days, and this is the first time since 2024 that the index has reached "Extreme Greed." Just a month ago it was at 36 (Fear) and a week ago at 41 (Neutral). Reaching 81 today represents the fastest sentiment shift of the year. This means the market is highly excited and bullish, but technical analysts also note that at "Extreme Greed" levels there is a warning about excessive greed and potential overextension.

The sentiment data is also positive — the 24-hour overall sentiment reading is +0.51, with 85.7% of tweets being positive and a mention count of 7. Key news included: Michael Saylor's Strategy company has created a new $1.6 billion cash pool that can be used to buy more BTC; BlackRock has reduced the minimum threshold for directly converting BTC into its IBIT ETF from $25 million down to $1 million (making it much easier for retail and institutional investors); and BlackRock told Bloomberg they expect investors to continue pouring billions into BTC. Thailand's SEC is also advancing regulations for spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. These are all bullish catalysts.

ETF flows are also quite strong. In the latest data, the BTC ETF net inflow was $307.45 million, and total ETF assets have reached $96.07 billion. Over the past week, Bitcoin and Ether ETFs drew $2.6 billion, the strongest inflow week since October, coming with tripling volume. This is a clear sign of institutional demand.

Now look at the derivatives numbers. The funding rate is 0.5787% — positive but not yet extreme, meaning longs are paying a small premium but it is not yet at a level that signals a crash. The long-short ratio is 1.08, indicating a slight long bias. Open interest is $56.15 billion, down -1.74% over 24h, which shows slight deleveraging during the pullback. The taker buy/sell ratio is 1.02, meaning buying volume slightly exceeds selling, and 24h liquidations totaled $566 million with shorts accounting for $331 million (a normalization after the earlier short squeeze).

Now the biggest question you asked: will BTC form a bullish trend from here? Will it reach 90k, or will a pullback come? My assessment is that in the short term, the probability of a pullback is higher, but the medium-term and long-term trend is still bullish. This pullback is healthy because the daily RSI was overbought, price made a downward move on the 4h and 1h frames, and after such a rapid rally (roughly $13,000 or +20% in 5 days), continuing higher without any correction is difficult for liquidity reasons. So I believe BTC may first test the $77,500 to $76,000 zone or consolidate there, which would create a healthier base for the next leg of the rally.

As for 90k, it is possible but certain conditions need to be met. In raw numbers, reaching $90,000 from $78,780 would require a +14.24% move. That is a substantial rally that realistically won't happen overnight. The first target would be $82,000 (+4.09%), then $87,000 (+10.43%), and then $90,000 (+14.24%). This is ambitious but not impossible, especially when the macro backdrop is bullish.

The thing driving this rally is macro. The real driver is the U.S. Treasury's decision to double long-term bond buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation — this is weakening the dollar and pushing investors to view BTC as an inflation hedge. BlackRock's $15 trillion support and this ETF threshold reduction are also major bullish factors. But there are warnings too: some analysts say this rally is more of a "catch-up trade" than the start of a new bull cycle, market liquidity is tight, inflation is sticky, and there is geopolitical uncertainty. The 30-year Treasury yield sits at its highest level since 2007, which is a challenge for risk assets. This week's PCE Price Index data will be very important — if it comes in soft, risk assets could get a boost, but a hot print could create pressure.

My opinion, my friend, is this: if you are a long-term investor, the trend is bullish right now and pullbacks can be viewed as buy-the-dip opportunities, especially near the $76,000 daily MA7 support. If you are a short-term trader, caution is needed because resistance above $80,000 is strong and pullback momentum may build in the short term. The "Extreme Greed" sentiment is a warning that the market has run up substantially and some overleveraged long-position cleanup could occur. I believe the most probable scenario is that BTC first makes a small pullback or consolidation toward the $76,000 to $77,000 zone (the pullback currently underway could extend to a -3% to -6% range), then retests the $80,000 resistance, and if that sustains, it can move toward $82,000 to $87,000. The $90,000 level for now is a medium-term target that is realistic but requires first completing this pullback and confirming a break of resistance.
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