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Brent crude is currently trading around the 91 to 93 dollar per barrel zone as of August 24, 2026. The market has gone through one of the most dramatic and violent rallies in the history of the oil market this year. Let me break down the full picture from where prices started, how much they surged, and exactly why this is happening.

The 2026 story begins with the outbreak of a major conflict in the Middle East in late February. The escalation of the US, Israel and Iran tensions led to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the single most important oil shipping chokepoint on the planet. Roughly 20 percent of the world's oil and LNG normally passes through that narrow waterway. When the strait shut down, global oil supply crashed by an astonishing 10.1 million barrels per day in March alone, which the World Bank has called the largest disruption in the history of the world oil market. This was bigger than the 1970s energy crisis.

How Much Did It Surge

The numbers tell an extraordinary story. Brent crude surpassed the 100 dollar level in early March for the first time in four years, and then spiked to a reported peak near 126 dollars and even 138 dollars per barrel at various points during the crisis, depending on the source. That peak was the highest reading since June 2022. The largest ever monthly increase in oil prices occurred in March 2026. Compared to a year ago, Brent is still up roughly 34 percent. Over the past month alone it has risen about 4.2 percent. From the December 2025 low of near 58 dollars, Brent has at various points more than doubled. The 52 week range stretches from a low of 58.72 to a high of 126.41 dollars per barrel, a massive spread that illustrates just how violent and unpredictable this market has become.

Why The Surge Happened

The fundamental driver is straightforward and powerful. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz cut off a massive portion of global crude supply at the same time that attacks on energy infrastructure across the region destroyed production and export capacity. The World Bank estimates global oil output fell by 6.9 million barrels per day year on year in the second quarter of 2026, the largest quarterly decline since the COVID pandemic. Beyond Hormuz, there are additional supply pressures coming from Libya, the Bab el Mandeb strait, and attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. The supply deficit is being estimated at somewhere around 6.6 million barrels per day.

Compounding the physical shortage is the geopolitical risk premium. The US Iran ceasefire that was signed in June expired, and renewed hostilities plus threats of severe new sanctions against Iran have kept traders on edge. Iran has said repeatedly that the strait will remain closed unless the US meets its conditions, and the newly established Persian Gulf Strait Authority has been warning vessel owners about compliance rules. European fuel oil imports from the Gulf fell by a staggering 95 percent in the first half of 2026. Inventories have been drawing down hard, and analysts note that even if the strait fully reopened today, global stockpiles would still sit roughly 20 million barrels below the tightest level in recent history. Demand remains resilient despite higher prices.

Recent Price Action and Current Level

Over the last few weeks the market has been extremely volatile. Brent spiked into the low 90s in mid August as hostilities reignited, then pulled back on profit taking. On August 24 Brent was trading around 91 to 93 dollars, having been rejected at resistance near 94.78 dollars. The most recent data shows Brent slipping toward the 91 dollar area, with the technical picture showing a double top pattern forming near the 94 dollar zone. The market is now testing a rising support band between 90.20 and 91 dollars. Day range on the latest session was roughly 90.20 to 92.07 dollars.

Technical Levels - Support and Resistance

Let me lay out the key levels that traders are watching. On the support side, the first and most immediate support level, call it S1, sits around 90.60 to 91 dollars. This is the rising trendline support that held the most recent pullback, and Brent is also sitting above its 50 day EMA near 90.73 and its 100 day EMA near 88.92, which means the broader uptrend is technically still intact while these levels hold. S2 support sits around 87.50 to 88 dollars, which is the 100 EMA zone. A break below this would open up the 84.50 to 85 dollar region as S3 support, which corresponds to earlier consolidation and the 200 day type levels. Below that, the deeper safety net is around 81.60 to 82 dollars.

On the resistance side, the first major resistance level, R1, is the recently rejected zone at 94.50 to 94.78 dollars. This is a major rejection point, the upper Bollinger band, and the completion level of the double top. R2 resistance sits around 97 dollars, which technical analysts have flagged as the next upside target if the price can decisively break and hold above the 94 to 95 zone. R3 resistance is the psychologically significant 100 dollar round number, and above that the path opens toward 102, 105, and technically toward the 125 to 126 dollar crisis high if the geopolitical situation escalates further.

For a structured trading plan, a conservative long setup would place SL1 just below 90 dollars, SL2 below 87, and SL3 below 84.50. On the take profit side, TP1 sits around 94.50, TP2 near 97, and TP3 at the 100 round number. A breakout trade above 94.78 with sustained buying could target 97, 100, and 105 in sequence. On the bearish side, a close below 90 would target 87.50, then 85, then 84.50, with stops above 94.80 for shorts.

Forcast and Analyst View

The analyst community remains predominantly bullish but with wide dispersion. The US Energy Information Administration forecasts Brent to average around 87 dollars per barrel for 2026, and does not expect Middle East production to return to near pre conflict levels until early 2027. Barclays maintains a 100 dollar per barrel average forecast for 2026 and notes risks skew to the upside, warning that if disruptions persist the market could reprice toward 110 dollars. Morgan Stanley has sharply upgraded its forecast, now seeing Brent peaking near 100 dollars in the fourth quarter of 2026 before easing to about 95 dollars in the first quarter of 2027. The World Bank projects that if the conflict continues or supply constraints persist, Brent could average between 95 and 115 dollars per barrel in 2026. Trading Economics projects Brent near 96.11 dollars by the end of the current quarter. Goldman Sachs base case sits around 85 dollars with substantial upside above 120 dollars if Hormuz remains severely restricted.

Can It Reach 100 Dollars

Yes, reaching 100 dollars is a real and credible scenario, but it is conditional. The path above 100 requires that the market decisively breaks and holds above the 94 to 95 resistance zone, which would then open the door toward 97 and the round 100 level. The single biggest catalyst that would push Brent through 100 quickly is any escalation that extends or deepens the Hormuz closure, especially if severe US sanctions against Iran actually materialize as threatened, or if there is renewed military action that damages more infrastructure. The market is currently consolidating after a sharp rally, so there is no guarantee of an immediate push, but the structural supply deficit, the tight inventory picture, and the unresolved geopolitical risk all mean that the upside scenario is very much alive.

Market Sentiment

Sentiment is best described as bullish but nervous, with a clear risk premium embedded in the price. Speculative long positions that were built up during last week's rally are being unwound for profit taking, which is why we have seen the recent pullback from the 94 dollar area. However, the downside is capped by tight global inventories, the ongoing Hormuz restriction, and repeated warnings from Iran. The market is essentially caught between the fundamental upward pressure from supply disruption and the technical reality of an overbought chart that needed to cool off. Position flow shows that traders are unwinding winning longs to lock in gains but do not appear to be aggressively building short positions, which suggests the bias remains to the upside on any dips.

The 100 Dollar Question and Trading Strategy

The realistic assessment is that Brent has a genuine chance to test and potentially exceed 100 dollars in the coming weeks, but it is not a certainty and it depends entirely on geopolitics. If the sanctions announcement against Iran is severe and enforcement restricts more supply, or if the Hormuz closure extends, prices could spike quickly through 97 toward 100 and beyond, with some analysts pointing at 102 to 105 as the next technical magnets and the crisis high of 125 as an extreme target. If instead there is diplomatic progress toward reopening the strait, prices could fall quickly back toward 87, 85, and even lower.

For traders, the disciplined approach is to wait for a clear break and hold of the 94.50 to 95 zone before entering fresh longs targeting 97, then 100, then 105, with stops placed below 90. A pullback toward the 90 to 90.60 support band that holds and produces a bullish rejection candle is also a valid long entry point targeting the same upside. Aggressive traders favoring the bearish scenario can look to short a failed rally that gets rejected again at 94.50, targeting 90 and then 87, with stops above 95. Given the extreme volatility and the whipsaw risk in the 90.20 to 92.50 zone, the smartest advice is to keep position sizes conservative, respect the stop levels strictly, and avoid overtrading the chop zone in the middle of the range. Risk management is everything in this market right now, because the moves in either direction can be fast and violent.