#FedSeesTreasuryMarketFunctioningWell

The Treasury Market May Be Orderly, But Rising Yields Are Still a Major Warning for Crypto

One of the biggest macro stories right now is not necessarily inflation data, Bitcoin ETFs or the next Federal Reserve decision. It is the U.S. Treasury market.

The Federal Reserve may see Treasury market functioning as orderly, but that does not mean financial conditions are easy. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari has acknowledged the sharp increase in long-term Treasury yields while indicating that he does not currently see signs of market dysfunction. The key difference is important: a market can function normally while still creating serious pressure for global risk assets.

The 10-year Treasury yield is trading around the 4.7% area, while the 30-year remains above 5.2% after recently reaching approximately 5.34%, levels not seen in almost two decades.

Why does this matter?

Because higher long-term yields increase the cost of capital across the economy. Governments pay more to finance debt, companies face higher borrowing costs and investors can receive increasingly attractive returns from relatively lower-risk government bonds. This can reduce liquidity available for higher-risk assets such as technology stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Several factors continue to support elevated yields: persistent inflation concerns, massive government borrowing, the expanding U.S. debt burden, energy costs, resilient economic activity and huge capital requirements linked to the global AI boom.

Another important development is Treasury buybacks. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has indicated that long-end buyback operations could increase from around $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation beginning in September. While this is small compared with the enormous size of the Treasury market, it could still help improve liquidity and support the management of the government's maturity profile.

For me, the key technical levels are becoming very clear.

On the 10-year yield, the 4.75%–4.80% zone remains important. A sustained break higher could increase pressure on risk assets, especially if the market starts focusing on the psychological 5% level. On the bullish side, a move back below 4.65% and toward 4.60% would be a much more constructive signal.

For the 30-year yield, I am closely watching the 5.30%–5.34% resistance zone. A rejection from this area and a sustained move below 5.15%–5.20% could indicate that long-duration pressure is finally beginning to ease.

This is where Bitcoin becomes interesting.

BTC is no longer trading in isolation. The broader liquidity environment matters. If Bitcoin can maintain the $75K–$76K support zone while Treasury yields stabilize or decline, a confirmed move above $78K could create momentum toward $80K–$82K and potentially $85K.

However, the bearish scenario cannot be ignored. If long-term yields continue rising while BTC loses the $74K–$75K area, I would become more defensive. A decisive breakdown below $72K–$73K could damage the current structure and shift the focus toward capital preservation.

ETH will likely need the same macro confirmation. A sustainable Ethereum breakout would be much stronger if BTC remains stable, Treasury yields begin easing and ETH successfully reclaims key resistance levels.

My strategy remains simple: watch bonds before chasing crypto.

Falling yields plus strong BTC support would provide bullish confirmation. Rising yields plus weakening BTC structure would signal caution.

The Fed may be comfortable with Treasury market functioning, but investors should not confuse stability with easy financial conditions. The direction of Treasury yields could become one of the most important signals for the next major move in Bitcoin and the wider crypto market.

Controlled leverage, staggered entries and clear invalidation levels remain essential.

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