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Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around $4,638, and my overall view remains bullish, but I would not chase the price blindly after such a strong move.

Gold has recently pushed above $4,600 and reached levels not seen since May. The latest move has been supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, lower long-term Treasury yields, fiscal concerns and renewed safe-haven demand.

Reuters reported spot gold around $4,641 on August 24, confirming that the market is currently holding near these elevated levels.

From my perspective, the most important change is the technical breakout. Gold has recovered strongly from the roughly $4,000 area seen in July and has now reclaimed the important $4,500 zone. MarketPulse identified $4,504 as a key resistance area around the 200-day moving average, with $4,580 and $4,640 as the next important levels. Since price is now around $4,638, the market is testing the upper part of that resistance structure.

The 1-day chart structure looks bullish to me: higher lows, strong upward momentum and a clear recovery from the previous correction.

However, after such a fast rally, a short consolidation or pullback would be completely normal. I would actually prefer to see gold retest support and then continue higher rather than buying directly into a resistance zone.

My main support levels are $4,600, $4,550 and $4,500. The $4,600 area is now extremely important because it can act as the first psychological support. If buyers defend this level and daily candles continue closing above it, the bullish structure remains strong. Below that, $4,550 is the next important zone, while $4,500 is the major structural support and breakout area.

On the resistance side, $4,640 is the immediate battle zone. A clean daily close above $4,650 could open the way toward $4,700. If $4,700 is broken with strong momentum, I would watch $4,750 and then $4,800. The current market also shows strong attention around $4,650 and $4,700, making these levels important psychological checkpoints.

My bullish scenario is simple: Gold holds $4,600, breaks $4,650 and establishes support above that level. In that case, the next upside target becomes $4,700, followed by $4,750 and potentially $4,800. A sustained move above $4,800 would significantly strengthen the medium-term bullish structure.

My preferred trading plan would therefore be to avoid emotional entries at the top. If price pulls back toward $4,600–$4,580 and shows buying strength, that zone becomes interesting for a controlled long setup. A stronger retracement toward $4,550–$4,500 could provide an even better risk-to-reward opportunity if the bullish structure remains intact.

For the downside scenario, the key warning comes if Gold loses $4,500 decisively. A daily close below that level would weaken the current bullish setup and could send the market toward $4,434–$4,405. MarketPulse also identifies $4,405 as an important level whose loss could trigger a deeper correction toward approximately $4,320.

My personal market view is still bullish. The macro environment is currently giving Gold several reasons to remain strong: a softer dollar, concerns around U.S. fiscal sustainability, Treasury bond-buyback activity, lower long-term yields and expectations surrounding future Federal Reserve policy. Gold's recent recovery has also been substantial, with Reuters noting roughly a 9% August rebound by August 17.

However, traders should watch the upcoming U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve commentary closely. These events can create sharp moves in both directions. If inflation comes in softer and rate expectations become more supportive, Gold could receive another boost. If yields and the dollar suddenly strengthen, profit-taking could produce a meaningful pullback.

My forecast from the current $4,638 area is that Gold can potentially reach $4,700 first. If $4,700 breaks convincingly, $4,750–$4,800 becomes the next upside zone. A more aggressive bullish extension could target $4,850, but I would only consider that scenario after confirmation above $4,800.

Trading levels I am watching:

SL1: $4,575

SL2: $4,535

SL3: $4,485

TP1: $4,700

TP2: $4,750

TP3: $4,800

These levels are scenario-based rather than guaranteed outcomes, and position size should be controlled because Gold can move very quickly around U.S. economic data.

Final view: BULLISH, but approaching a major resistance area. I would rather buy a confirmed breakout or a healthy pullback than chase a vertical candle. Above $4,600, buyers remain in control in my view. Above $4,650, momentum could accelerate toward $4,700 and $4,750.

Below $4,500, however, I would become much more cautious and expect a deeper correction.

My plan: BUY THE PULLBACK OR BUY THE CONFIRMED BREAKOUT — not emotional entries in the middle of resistance. Gold's bigger picture remains constructive, but the next major decision comes around $4,640–$4,700.

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