Bitcoin and the “Seller Exhaustion” Signal: Is Selling Pressure Running Out of Steam?

Bitcoin has entered an interesting phase after a sharp rally from the US$69,000 area to around US$79,463. Amid this momentum, 21Shares identified a historically rare signal: the Bitcoin Seller Exhaustion Constant stood at around 0.007, placing it among the lowest 0.3% of readings since 2010.
The historical data is intriguing. Extreme levels like this have occurred only 11 times. In the previous 10 instances, Bitcoin was always higher one year later, with a median gain of 155%. However, 21Shares stressed that this indicator is not a definitive signal that the price has reached a bottom; Bitcoin could still undergo a correction before a trend reversal actually occurs.

More Than Just a Technical Signal
What makes the current situation even more interesting is that the seller exhaustion signal has emerged alongside the return of institutional capital.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded more than US$517 million in inflows on August 19, the largest since May 4. In the week through August 21, ETF inflows even reached around US$1.61 billion, while BTC briefly hit US$79,463.
This means the market is seeing not only weakening sellers but also the emergence of new buyers with substantial purchasing power.
However, this is precisely where investors need to remain disciplined. A rally of more than 20% in one week could increase the risk of profit-taking, especially if ETF flows begin to slow or leverage activity rises again.

Conclusion
The 21Shares signal offers an interesting bullish narrative: Bitcoin’s selling pressure may be approaching an extreme exhaustion point. History even indicates the potential for very substantial returns after similar conditions.
But 155% is not a price target.
What matters more to monitor now is whether ETF inflows remain strong, selling pressure from long-term holders eases, and BTC can maintain its structure after the major rally.
If seller exhaustion meets sustained institutional demand, this historical signal could mark the beginning of a new accumulation phase, rather than merely a temporary bounce.
#BTC $BTC ‌