$BTC If we observe the 2022 bottom, most of the time bottoms form with 1 major impulse candle, like what we have seen.



In terms of retests, we usually don't see the "ideal retest". After BTC broke from 16K to 25K, it retested 19K, aligning with the 0.618.

If we apply the same principle to this impulsive candle up, then any push down is likely to be shallow, with the 73-70K region potentially serving as the local range bottom before pushing through 80K.

Before that, I expect some sort of range to form, accumulating late longs and building liquidity. We may even see another sweep above 79.5K before the final flush into the low 70s, followed by expansion.

You usually don't see an instant retrace of these trend shifting impulsive candles because it defeats the objective. The market needs to build long liquidity first before the final sweep and expansion.

So before we test any of these lower regions, I think we can expect more range based movement to accumulate liquidity.
BTC-0.13%
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AltCoinSeeker
· 2h ago
The technical analysis is quite detailed, but these levels could all be thrown off once the macro data comes out. Still, we need to guard against spikes triggered by the nonfarm payrolls report or CPI.
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GridForeman
· 5h ago
So is this just range-bound shakeout action to accumulate fuel for longs now? Can low-entry long positions be held more firmly, waiting for it to sweep 79.5 before dipping further?
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DeathCrossWarner
· 5h ago
Put simply, they first let the chasers and dip buyers pile in, then wipe them all out before pushing it back up to 80K? This pattern has been seen far too many times, yet people still fall for it every time.
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Level2Detective
· 5h ago
Agreed. A direct retracement after the first big bullish candle of a trend reversal would render the effort futile; market makers wouldn’t be that stupid. The key is whether the 70–73 range can hold.
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BitDCA
· 5h ago
This line of thinking is quite clear, especially the point that ideal pullbacks rarely occur. In practice, the price often takes off before you get a chance to enter.
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ZeroLeverage
· 5h ago
What I fear most is a move up to 79.5 first to sweep stop-losses, followed by a sudden crash to 71. This kind of scenario is too brutal for futures traders, while spot traders don’t really care.
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