$BTC Searching for something like this going into the monthly close / new month.

Today’s candle is most likely the exhaustion candle we usually see at the end of trends. It’s only a matter of how high it extends before the close.

I think Wave 3 will be marked below the 82.8k high. Front-running it on the first pump would make a lot of sense because that would bait a lot of people who will be longing towards that high thinking it will likely be taken out now because "we came too close to it" while also front-running the obvious sweep of the high short setups.

That’s why I think we’ll move into Wave 4 from here. Another confluence making this more likely is USDT.D also bouncing from the Monthly FVG, so a pullback into Wave 4 is looking very likely.

Personally, I am expecting that we'll complete Wave 4 at the 0.382 Fib around 72.9k, where we also have the current Daily Open with the shaved bottom. In impulsive markets we usually see flat pullbacks so a move into 0.382-0.5 fib region is probably going to be the max downside we'll see.

For now, I expect us to range within this upper 75k–79k region for a while before eventually retracing into that 72.9k level to mark Wave 4.

I’ll make a full update on this soon, but that’s the idea I’m working with right now.