CLARITY Act: Probabilities, Debates, and Expectations Before September 15

The CLARITY Act is a text aimed at creating a comprehensive regulatory framework for the US crypto market and is considered the most critical bill of the year. Despite months of negotiations and intense lobbying, the bill was postponed to September 15 due to the Senate's August recess. This date is a critical turning point for the first procedural vote that will determine the bill's fate. Market and industry representatives are closely watching the outcome of this process in September.

Current Situation and Probabilities

The probability of the bill becoming law in 2026 has significantly decreased in recent months. Galaxy Digital stated this probability as 10% in mid-August. Rates in the prediction markets have similarly fallen below 20%. This decline is primarily due to the fact that the Senate will reconvene in mid-September, with only two to three weeks of work before the midterm elections. Passing the bill through all stages within this tight timeframe makes overcoming political obstacles even more difficult.

Unresolved Political Obstacles

The three biggest obstacles to the bill are:

1. Ethics Rules: Democrats are demanding stricter regulations on income from crypto assets earned by President Trump and his family. Senator Ruben Gallego stated that they have sent a proposal to the White House for a compromise text on this issue but have not yet received a response. The lack of resolution on this issue makes it difficult to gain Democratic support.
2. Stablecoin Yields: The banking sector opposes the bill's provisions allowing yield on stablecoins, arguing that this could lead to deposit flight. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott stated that a previously reached compromise on this issue is being reopened for discussion.
3. Developer Protection (BRCA): There is disagreement between law enforcement and lawmakers regarding the responsibilities of software developers on decentralized protocols.

September 15th Procedural Vote

The vote scheduled for September 15th does not automatically mean the bill will be passed. This is the procedural vote required for the debate to begin. The bill needs 60 votes to pass. Republicans hold 53 seats, and to secure the support of potential dissenters within the party, at least 7-8 Democrats need to vote yes. Whether this support will be secured remains uncertain.

White House and Industry Stance

White House Crypto Advisor Patrick Witt stated that discussions with Democrats will continue until September 15th and that he is optimistic about a positive outcome. President Trump also called for the passage of a "fair version" of the bill during a meeting with industry representatives. Executives from major crypto companies like Coinbase and Ripple are also lobbying intensely for the bill's passage.

Possible SEC Moves

If the bill passes, the SEC is expected to announce an "innovation exemption" for tokenized securities. This exemption could allow on-chain trading without requiring a broker or exchange under certain conditions. Securitize President Brett Redfearn suggested the SEC delayed this announcement to avoid influencing the CLARITY Act vote, and that the regulation could arrive in early October. If the bill fails, the SEC is likely to attempt to implement such regulations under its own authority.

This post is not investment advice and is for informational purposes only regarding market conditions.

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