This rally may look like a price breakout on the surface, but it is actually being driven by three forces at once:

First, the U.S. Treasury plans to expand buybacks of long-term government bonds. The market interpreted this as a marginal improvement in liquidity, weakening the U.S. Dollar Index and benefiting risk assets across the board; second, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of approximately $517 million on August 19, with BlackRock’s IBIT contributing about $285 million, showing that spot demand is indeed returning; third, a large number of short positions were liquidated in succession, with total liquidations across the market exceeding $3.2 billion over the past 24 hours, creating a typical short squeeze.⁠
However, I don’t think we can blindly declare that the bull market is back yet.
The short-term rise has been too fast, and the passive buying generated by leveraged liquidations cannot continue indefinitely. The key point going forward is whether $73,000 can turn from resistance into support. If the retest holds and ETFs continue to see net inflows, the rally may have a chance to shift from a short-squeeze rebound into a genuine uptrend; if it falls back below $70,000, this move may well be just a rapid pulse jointly created by sentiment and leverage.
My view is straightforward: the direction has turned stronger, but the risk of chasing the rally is not low right now. A truly healthy move would not be another straight-line surge, but rather consolidation and firming around $73,000 before opening up further upside. #BTC