This rally may appear to be a price breakout on the surface, but it is actually being driven by three forces at once:

First, the U.S. Treasury plans to expand its buybacks of long-term government bonds, which the market interprets as a marginal improvement in liquidity. The U.S. Dollar Index weakened, and risk assets broadly benefited; second, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of approximately $517 million on August 19, with BlackRock’s IBIT contributing about $285 million, indicating that spot buying has indeed begun to return; third, a large number of short positions were liquidated in succession. More than $3.2 billion was liquidated across the market over the past 24 hours, creating a typical short squeeze.⁠

However, I don’t think it’s time to blindly call for the return of a bull market.

The short-term rise has been too rapid, and the forced buying caused by leveraged liquidations cannot continue indefinitely. The key point to watch next is whether $72,000 can turn from resistance into support. If the price holds on a pullback while ETF net inflows continue, the rally may have a chance to shift from a short squeeze rebound into a genuine uptrend; if it falls back below $70,000, this move was likely just a rapid impulse jointly driven by sentiment and leverage.

My view is straightforward: the direction has turned stronger, but the risk of chasing the rally is not low at this point. A truly healthy trend would not be another nonstop surge, but rather consolidation and firming around $72,000 before opening up further upside. #BTC突破71000美元日内涨幅10.5% @Gate 广场