Before you get giga bullish, please read this.



Bitcoin pumped +15% in the last 4 days, flipping short-term momentum ultra-bullish, but this does not fully cancel the risk of a Q4 correction and bottom.

1. Why this is the first real reversal sign

-BTC reclaimed its weekly MA 200
-Bullish RSI divergence & MACD crossover
- Macro conditions are bullish with Core inflation at 5-year lows and ISM at a 4-year high.
- Russell 2000 is hitting new highs ( historically leading indicator for crypto )

2. The warning

In July–August 2022, BTC rallied +40% with identical metrics before violently dropping -22% in a single week of November and printing new lows.

3. Conclusion

Short-term momentum has clearly shifted bullish, but the larger trend structure has not fully flipped yet.

Holding above $67K keeps the recovery intact; losing it would mean the breakout was a fakeout.
BTC6.49%
US20000.68%
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EquationGuy
· 23h ago
The signal looks quite solid, but the last pullback in 2022 hurt too much. Let’s wait until it holds above 67K first.
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0.1PercentClub
· 08-20 17:57
Honestly, articles that both sweeten the deal and slap you in the face are the worst—I'm afraid to go long in the short term in case of a pullback, but I don't dare go short either. Might as well reduce my position and watch from the sidelines; it won't be too late to chase after Russell leads the way and a clear trend emerges.
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VWAPFollower
· 08-20 17:45
Your analysis is fairly objective, but I think this time is different from 2022. After all, the macro environment has shifted, inflation is under control, and small-cap stocks are hitting new highs. Even if this rally pulls back, it’s most likely an opportunity to get in. Hold as long as 67k holds; stop-loss if it breaks. As long as the plan is clear, that’s enough.
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