#BTCETH反弹交易思路 BTC has reclaimed $70k, while ETH rebounds strongly: Are risk assets entering a new round of rebound?

On August 20, global risk assets saw a clear rebound. Bitcoin climbed back above $70k, briefly touching around $71.3k; Ethereum performed even more strongly, moving back toward $2,300. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks remained strong, gold rose to around $4,500, and international oil prices approached $93.
The market appears to be rising across the board. But when these assets are viewed together, it becomes clear that the current market is not as simple as it seems. Risk assets are rising, but macro risks have not disappeared.

I. BTC reclaims $70k as institutional funds begin flowing back
A very important reason for this round of Bitcoin gains is that spot ETF inflows have clearly resumed.
August 19: BTC spot ETFs recorded net inflows of approximately $517 million.
At the same time: ETH spot ETFs recorded net inflows of approximately $189 million. The single-day inflow into BTC ETFs reached one of the highest levels in several months, while ETH ETFs also saw substantial fund inflows. This means that the rally is not being driven entirely by retail sentiment. Institutional funds are re-entering the crypto market.
From a market-structure perspective: ETF inflows → increased spot demand → BTC rises → short positions close → perpetual-contract leverage increases again. This chain is beginning to reappear.

II. Why is ETH stronger than BTC this time?
If we look only at gains, the asset most worth watching in this round is actually not BTC, but ETH. ETH has clearly outperformed BTC recently and is currently moving back toward $2,300. One important reason is that ETH ETF inflows have a greater marginal impact. Although the absolute amount of $189 million is far below that of BTC, given ETH’s overall market capitalization, the inflows are having a more pronounced effect on its price. If ETH can stabilize above $2,300, the market may start trading the narrative of ETH’s relative strength against BTC again. This is also a direction worth closely watching in the near term.

III. But one signal is warning investors: funding rates are beginning to heat up, which is especially important for cryptocurrency investors.
As BTC has risen again, longs in the perpetual-contract market have increased rapidly, and funding rates have turned positive again and begun rising noticeably. This means: rising prices → more longs → higher funding rates → more capital chasing gains. Leverage-driven crowding is beginning to form. For ordinary investors, this means the risk of chasing highs is increasing.

IV. U.S. stocks continue rising, but the real driver is falling long-term bond yields
The U.S. stock market has remained strong recently. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones have all continued to rise. One very important reason is that U.S. long-term Treasury yields have declined. The U.S. Treasury recently increased the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks, helping ease pressure in the long-term bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield fell from around 4.75% to approximately 4.66%, while the 30-year yield declined from around 5.34% to approximately 5.20%. For the Nasdaq and technology stocks: lower long-term rates = lower valuation pressure. So it is not surprising that technology stocks have strengthened again recently. But the problem is that U.S. stock valuations are already not cheap. Therefore, it cannot simply be understood as a “rate-cut bull market restarting.” A more accurate interpretation is that falling long-term bond yields have temporarily eased market pressure.

V. What truly needs attention is the Fed discussing rate hikes again
The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting sent a very important signal. At the time, rates remained at 3.50%—3.75%. But the vote showed: 9 votes to keep rates unchanged and 3 votes in favor of a 25-basis-point rate hike. In other words, some Fed officials have already begun seriously considering further rate hikes. This is clearly different from the market’s previous expectation of “continued rate cuts.”
Why is this happening? One important reason is that inflationary pressure has not completely disappeared. And now a new problem has emerged: international oil prices are rising again. If oil prices continue to rise, energy prices could push inflation higher again. This would limit the Fed’s room to cut rates. It cannot even be ruled out that the market will start trading “rate-hike risk” again.

VI. Oil prices approaching $93 could instead become the biggest risk to risk assets
Brent crude is currently approaching $93 and has risen for multiple consecutive trading sessions. The core factors behind this remain geopolitics and tensions between the United States and Iran. The Strait of Hormuz handles a very important share of global oil transportation. If geopolitical conditions deteriorate further and oil prices continue toward $95, $100, or even higher, global inflationary pressure will rise again.
This is not good news for U.S. stocks, BTC, or ETH. The market may start trading the following chain again: rising oil prices → higher inflation → a more hawkish Fed → rates remaining high → pressure on risk-asset valuations. Therefore, oil prices are currently one of the variables most worth watching in global markets.

VII. Japanese rate hikes could also affect global capital flows again
Another variable that cannot be ignored is Japan. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has approached 3%, standing at a very high level. At the same time, the market continues to monitor the possibility of further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. If Japan continues with rate hikes + yen appreciation, the global Carry Trade, which has been very important over the past few years, could be affected.
Simply put: In the past, large amounts of global capital could borrow yen at low cost and then invest in risk assets such as U.S. stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies. If Japanese interest rates continue to rise, the appeal of this trade will decline.
Therefore: Japanese rate hikes are not merely a domestic Japanese issue. They could affect liquidity in global risk assets. VIII. Gold is also rising, showing that the market has not fully entered “risk-on mode.” One very interesting phenomenon now is: BTC is rising, U.S. stocks are rising, and gold is also rising. Normally, if the market truly enters a very strong risk-on environment, gold would not necessarily rise so strongly at the same time as risk assets. This combination now looks more like: liquid assets are rising while safe-haven assets are also receiving funds. This means investors are willing to take on risk on the one hand, but have not completely abandoned protection against macro risks on the other.
Therefore, it is more appropriate to understand the market now as: a liquidity-driven rebound in risk assets + geopolitically driven safe-haven demand. It is not yet a fully confirmed new bull market.

IX. Focus on three prices going forward
① BTC: $70k
$70k has become a very important psychological threshold. If BTC can remain steadily above $70k, market sentiment will improve further. But if it only breaks through briefly before falling back, this rally could still be just a strong rebound.
② ETH: $2,300
ETH has been clearly stronger than BTC recently. Whether $2,300 can turn from resistance into support is an important point for determining whether this ETH rebound can continue.
③ Brent: $95. Oil is instead the variable that currently requires the most caution.
If Brent breaks above $95 and continues moving toward $100, the market may once again worry about inflation and Fed policy. At that point, the upside potential for U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies would be constrained.

The current market can easily create the impression: “BTC has broken above $70,000, U.S. stocks are rising again, and the bull market is back.” But when the macro environment is viewed as a whole, things are far from that simple. On one side are: ETF fund inflows returning, falling long-term bond yields, and BTC and ETH rising. On the other side are: rising oil prices, renewed discussions of Fed rate hikes, the risk of Japanese rate hikes, and global long-term bond yields that remain relatively high.
Therefore, the most reasonable judgment for now is: bullish in the short term, cautiously bullish in the medium term, with significant macro uncertainty remaining.
For ordinary investors, it is inadvisable to blindly chase highs simply because of one rapid rally. For funding-rate arbitrage traders, however, it is worth focusing on the divergence emerging in funding rates across major exchanges during this rally. The hotter the market, the more worthwhile price spreads often are to study.$BTC $ETH ‌ ‌