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My view: Don't chase the vertical candle; get a confirmation or controlled pullback.
The move has real catalysts – the expansion of the Treasury buyback, strong BTC ETF inflows, and a large short squeeze – but about $1.4 billion in short positions have been liquidated, so part of the rally is driven by forced buying rather than new spot demand.
Trading plan:
* BTC: Wait for a pullback/retest of the breakout zone around $69,000-$70,000. If it holds and momentum returns, buy gradually. A clean rejection below this zone = hold on the sidelines instead of opening a short position immediately.
* ETH: ETH has more momentum (+18%) but also a higher risk of further extension. I would prefer a retest around $2,050-$2,100 rather than buying at $2,250 and above.
* Pullback: Only if BTC loses the breakout and ETH follows suit. Confirmation of the short position setup is necessary; it is dangerous to retreat from strength simply because the RSI appears high.
* Risk: Small initial position, predefined invalidation, no high leverage. If the market continues to squeeze, allow the price to prove the thesis before adding.
Best Risk/Risk Ratio: wait → retest → confirmation → staggered purchase.
The bullish thesis remains valid as long as the recovered breakout levels are maintained, but chasing a single-day move of +7-18% leaves the market with very little room for error.
$BTC
$ETH