#BTCETH反弹交易思路 I said several months ago:

ETH would revisit around 2340 in this cycle.

Yesterday, 2340 was reached.

The first-stage projection has basically played out to this point.

The key comes next.

ETH: 2340 enters the confirmation phase

Now I am mainly watching three actions:

Breakout, retest, and hold.

If the daily chart closes decisively above 2340, holds above it on the retest, and the weekly chart continues to stay above it afterward, I will gradually increase my conviction in a bull-market comeback.

Also watching:

Whether trading volume continues to expand
Whether RSI can remain strong
Whether MACD can continue to recover
Whether the 200-day moving average can be reclaimed
Whether ETH/BTC can strengthen in tandem

If 2340 repeatedly fails to break, with volume expansion but stalled gains, long upper wicks, or a false breakout, I will need to resume defensive positioning.

If 2340 holds, continue looking higher.

If confirmation at 2340 fails, the risk of a new low for the year reopens.

⸻

BTC’s next major hurdle: around 77000

The logic for Bitcoin is the same.

Next I will focus on 75000—77000, with 77000 as the core level.

Break above 77000 on the daily chart, hold it on the retest, then look for weekly confirmation.

If spot trading volume expands in tandem, OI does not spiral out of control, and funding rates remain normal, the medium-term structure will look much better.

If it reaches around 77000 and gets pushed back down, especially if a weekly false breakout appears, I will again guard against a new BTC low for the year.

So next it’s very simple:

ETH has reached 2340; verification begins.

BTC continues to wait for the major test around 77000.

I will not rush to a conclusion.

If it holds, I follow.
If it fails to hold, I withdraw.
If it’s a false breakout, I may even reverse position.

What matters next is not courage, but discipline.